How U.S. Natural Gas Producers Are Navigating the Price Pressure-Export Boom Paradox

The natural gas market opened 2026 facing an unusual disconnect: while liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand hit record levels, prices still couldn’t shake the weight of near-term supply oversupply. The culprit wasn’t hard to find—warmer-than-expected weather forecasts, below-forecast storage draws, and surging domestic production created a perfect storm that overwhelmed export strength in the short term.

Three Stocks Positioned for the Recovery

Before diving into market mechanics, investors should track three natural gas producers with structural advantages: EQT Corporation, Expand Energy, and Coterra Energy. These companies transcend daily weather noise because they’re tied to long-term LNG export growth and energy infrastructure demand—factors the current price weakness hasn’t diminished.

EQT dominates domestic output as the top natural gas producer by volume. The company’s Appalachian Basin operations (Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia) generate over 90% natural gas revenue. Recent performance has been sharp: it beat earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters with a trailing average surprise of 16.7%. As a Zacks Rank #3 name, it benefits from stable cash flows even during price dips.

Expand Energy became America’s largest natural gas producer after absorbing Chesapeake and Southwestern operations. With flagship assets in Haynesville and Marcellus basins, the company is primed for multiple demand drivers—LNG exports, data center power consumption, and EV infrastructure buildout. The 2025 earnings forecast shows a stunning 317.7% year-over-year jump, signaling confidence in sustained demand. Its four-quarter earnings surprise averages 4.9%.

Coterra Energy, headquartered in Houston with 186,000 net acres in Marcellus Shale, generates over 60% revenue from natural gas. The firm’s three-to-five-year earnings growth rate sits at 27.8%—well above the 17.2% industry average. Trading above $20 billion in valuation, Coterra posted a 6.6% average earnings surprise across the trailing four quarters.

Why Weather is Crushing Prices Today, But LNG Isn’t the Real Story

Natural gas futures slipped as traders recalibrated winter demand assumptions. The benchmark U.S. contract closed Friday at $3.618 per million BTU—unable to hold an early week spike above $4. Mid-January forecasts pointing to unseasonably mild temperatures across the Lower 48 reduced heating demand expectations sharply.

Supply dynamics worsened the picture. The latest storage withdrawal measured just 38 billion cubic feet—well below market expectations. Under standard natural gas formula calculations, this signals a looser balance between supply injections and demand draws. U.S. production, meanwhile, continued running at elevated levels, capping any rallies even as LNG export terminals hummed at near-record capacity.

The LNG Disconnect: Record Exports Aren’t Moving Prices Yet

Here’s the paradox: U.S. LNG export flows hit historical peaks throughout December. Feedgas volumes to major export terminals reached new highs in November and December, proving foreign demand remains robust. Yet prices couldn’t climb because the market remains laser-focused on winter heating season fundamentals.

When production levels are this elevated and weather forecasts are warm, even record export flows can only limit downside—they can’t drive prices higher. LNG demand acts as a floor, preventing sharper declines, but short-term imbalances still dominate price discovery.

What Changes the Equation: Calendar and Data

The near-term outlook for natural gas prices hinges on two data streams: weather forecasts and weekly storage reports. A sustained cold snap in late January would tighten supply-demand balances and support prices. Extended warmth keeps storage withdrawals tepid.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, however, the narrative is constructive. LNG export capacity continues expanding, creating a structural floor under domestic supply demand. Winter still has weeks remaining—meaningful cold-driven draws remain possible. Price weakness caused by weather anomalies often creates entry opportunities in efficiently-run, scaled producers like the three names above.

The strength of U.S. natural gas production combined with LNG export growth means the long-term formula favors disciplined producers with low-cost assets. Companies with 90%+ natural gas exposure in their reserves, like EQT and Coterra, benefit most when export demand finally overwhelms temporary supply gluts. Near-term weakness doesn’t erase these structural advantages.