Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Gains Traction Among Major Institutions—Here's What the Data Reveals

On January 7, 2026, Citizens launched an in-depth analysis on Meritage Homes, assigning a Market Outperform outlook that has caught investors’ attention. The catalyst? A compelling price target that signals meaningful upside potential.

Analyst Price Outlook: 20.55% Upside on the Horizon

As of late December 2025, Wall Street consensus points to an average one-year price target of $81.21 per share for Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH). Price projections span a wide range—from $61.82 on the conservative end to $106.05 on the bullish side. Compared to the latest closing price of $67.37, this represents a potential 20.55% gain from current levels.

Beyond valuation, the fundamental picture strengthens the case. Projected annual revenue for MTH is expected to reach 7,392MM, reflecting robust 22.31% growth. Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted at 9.38, underscoring solid earnings momentum.

Institutional Positioning: A Mixed but Telling Picture

Currently, 773 funds and institutions maintain positions in MTH, though this figure declined by 26 owners (3.25%) last quarter—a bearish signal worth monitoring. The average portfolio weight allocated to MTH stands at 0.20%, which increased 1.47% in recent months. However, total institutional shareholding dipped 2.48% to 88,376K shares, suggesting some profit-taking despite the optimistic outlook.

The put/call ratio sits at 1.88, leaning toward a bearish sentiment in options markets—a potential contrarian indicator.

Major Shareholders Making Their Moves

IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) holds 4,278K shares (6.08% ownership), down from 4,472K shares previously—representing a 4.53% decrease. More notably, the fund trimmed its portfolio allocation in MTH by 10.38% over the quarter.

VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares) maintains 2,203K shares (3.13% ownership), up modestly from 2,142K shares (a 2.78% increase). Yet despite owning more shares, VTSMX reduced its MTH allocation by 13.29%—a sign of rebalancing rather than conviction.

Capital World Investors presents the most bullish case: holdings jumped to 1,988K shares (2.82% ownership) from 1,378K shares—a striking 30.68% increase. Notably, this fund increased its portfolio allocation by 46.62% last quarter, signaling strong confidence in MTH’s prospects.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) scaled back to 1,752K shares (2.49% ownership) from 1,902K shares, marking an 8.55% reduction and a 12.12% portfolio trimming.

Geode Capital Management holds 1,713K shares (2.43% ownership), virtually flat from 1,695K shares (1.08% increase). However, the fund slashed its MTH allocation by a dramatic 47.14%—the steepest pullback among major holders.

The Bottom Line

Meritage Homes presents a paradox: analyst upgrades and revenue growth projections sit alongside cautious institutional rebalancing and elevated put/call ratios. While Capital World Investors’ aggressive position uptick suggests confidence, the broader trend of profit-taking among other major holders warrants careful watching. The 20.55% upside target looks compelling—but monitor institutional flows closely before diving in.