Corn Prices Struggle on Weak Export Demand Amid Mixed Futures Performance

Corn prices ended Thursday with modest swings across contract months as market sentiment remained cautious following disappointing export figures. The national average cash corn price slipped to $4.08 1/2, reflecting a slight decline of 1/4 cent from the prior session. This tepid pricing environment signals growing concerns about near-term demand dynamics.

Export Sales Disappoint Expectations

The week’s export sales data delivered a significant letdown for corn traders. Only 377,598 metric tons were purchased during the week ending January 1, materially underperforming the anticipated range of 0.7-1.5 million metric tons for the 2025/26 crop year. The weakness represents a marketing year low, marking a troubling 15.1% decline compared to the equivalent period in 2024.

South Korea led purchasing activity with 139,000 MT of orders, followed by Japan’s procurement of 108,100 MT. Sales commitments for the subsequent marketing year (2026/27) totaled just 11,860 MT, landing within but at the lower end of the 0-100,000 MT projection range.

Exports Surge While Distillers Products Show Strength

A contrasting narrative emerged from October export data, which revealed robust shipment volumes. Census records documented 6.564 million metric tons—equivalent to 248.5 million bushels—shipped during the month, representing a 63.38% surge versus the same period in 2024, though showing a 5.93% sequential decline from September levels.

Distillers grain exports reached 1.067 MMT, approaching the October 2024 record. Ethanol shipments rebounded impressively, returning to record-setting pace with 185 million gallons dispatched internationally.

Futures Price Action and Upcoming USDA Guidance

Front-month contracts demonstrated mixed performance on the session. March 26 corn futures retreated 3/4 cent to finish at $4.46, while May 26 contracts remained unchanged at $4.54. July 26 futures advanced 3/4 cent, closing at $4.60 1/2. The nearby cash reference point stayed at $4.08 1/2.

Market participants are bracing for the USDA’s WASDE report scheduled for Monday release. Preliminary Bloomberg consensus indicates analysts expect ending stocks to be recorded at 1.985 billion bushels—a 44 million bushel reduction from prior assessments—which could provide directional clarity for corn prices in coming sessions.