Wheat Futures Face Selling Pressure as Week Winds Down

2026-01-12 17:40:40

The wheat market is showing mixed signals heading into the close, with multiple contract months retreating on the session. CBOT SRW wheat is edging lower, while Kansas City HRW contracts have given back 1-2 cents across the board. Minneapolis spring wheat is posting steeper losses, sliding 2-3 cents by midday trading.

Export Performance Remains Robust Despite Price Softness

Recent export data tells a more bullish story underneath the surface weakness. As of January 1, cumulative wheat export commitments—including both shipped and unshipped sales—reached 20.228 MMT, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. This level captures 83% of the USDA’s full-season export forecast, aligning with the average sales pace trajectory.

On the shipment side, actual loadings have hit 15.16 MMT, marking a 21% improvement compared to the same period last year. These shipments represent 61% of the USDA’s projected export total, outpacing the historical 57% average shipping pace through this timeframe. This suggests strong international demand pulling wheat out of U.S. storage.

Period Contract Analysis and Price Action

The CBOT March 26 wheat contract is trading at $5.17 1/2, off 1/2 cent, while May 26 CBOT wheat sits at $5.28 3/4, down a fractional 1/4 cent.

Kansas City’s March 26 HRW contract has declined 1 1/2 cents to $5.28 3/4, with the May 26 contract losing 1 3/4 cents to $5.41 1/4.

Minneapolis spring wheat futures are posting the most significant declines—March 26 MIAX is down 2 3/4 cents at $5.68 1/2, while May 26 MIAX futures have retreated 2 1/4 cents to $5.79 1/4.

What’s Next: USDA Supply Update Looming

The USDA will unveil an updated WASDE report on Monday, with wheat ending stocks projected to decline by 5 million bushels to 896 million bushels. This tightening inventory picture could provide underlying support, even as near-term technical selling continues to weigh on prices.

Despite Friday’s session weakness, the export strength and projected stock drawdown suggest the wheat market may be consolidating rather than capitulating.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.