Asian Bourses Brace for Turbulence as Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets

Thailand’s stock market faces headwinds as it opens trading on Monday, with indices expected to slip into underwater territory amid broader market uncertainty. The Stock Exchange of Thailand, after a modest recovery on Tuesday that halted a three-day losing streak, remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure as geopolitical concerns grip global markets.

Market Recovery Stalls as Headwinds Build

Last Tuesday marked a turning point for Thai equities, which had surrendered over 20 points—or roughly 1.6 percent—during their previous three-session decline. The SET climbed 5.64 points to reach 1,259.67, representing a 0.45 percent gain as investors rotated into financial, resource, and technology sectors. However, the index still hovers below the 1,260-point level, leaving limited cushion against fresh selling.

Trading volume reached 5.328 billion shares valued at 32.547 billion baht, with advancing issues (291) narrowly outnumbering decliners (148), while 217 stocks closed flat. The session’s breadth suggested cautious sentiment despite the day’s positive close.

Stock-Specific Performance Reveals Mixed Investor Appetite

Individual stocks painted a complex picture. Energy and utility plays led gains: Thai Oil surged 2.13 percent, PTT Oil & Retail vaulted 2.31 percent, and PTT climbed 1.59 percent. Meanwhile, financial sector names showed mixed performance—Siam Commercial Bank advanced 1.09 percent while TTB Bank retreated 0.98 percent. Notably, Siam Concrete plunged 3.17 percent, signaling weakness in construction-related demand, while infrastructure plays like Bangkok Expressway jumped 1.90 percent and BTS Group rallied 1.79 percent. Aviation and healthcare names struggled, with Thailand Airport declining 0.93 percent and Bangkok Dusit Medical slipping 0.52 percent.

Global Context: U.S. Markets Edge Higher as Oil Softens

Wall Street provided modest tailwinds, with the Dow gaining 319.09 points (0.66%) to 48,382.39, though the broader indices showed weakness. The NASDAQ barely held ground, dipping 6.37 points (-0.03%) to 23,235.63, while the S&P 500 added just 12.97 points (+0.19%) to 6,858.47. Performance was muted as traders returned from New Year’s holiday, limiting conviction in either direction.

Weekly losses painted a grimmer picture: the NASDAQ fell 1.5 percent, the S&P shed 1.0 percent, and even the Dow lost 0.7 percent, reflecting broader anxiety.

Geopolitical Shock Clouds the Outlook

A major geopolitical event rattled markets late last week: the U.S. conducted large-scale military operations against Venezuela, with President Nicolás Maduro reportedly captured and removed from the country. This development introduced fresh uncertainty to emerging market sentiment and reinforced risk-off positioning heading into the week.

Crude oil weakness amplified these concerns. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery declined $0.12 to $57.30 per barrel on Friday, ahead of OPEC’s Sunday meeting. The cartel ultimately held output steady as anticipated, but crude finished 2024 down nearly 20 percent, pressuring energy-dependent economies including Thailand.

The Road Ahead

With major indices caught between technical support levels and geopolitical uncertainty, Asian markets including Thailand’s SET face a challenging trading week. Investors bracing for potential underwater openings should monitor U.S. policy responses to Venezuela developments and any OPEC signals that could reignite commodity volatility. The confluence of holiday thinness and headline risk suggests caution remains warranted.