Three Natural Gas Plays to Watch as Price of Natural Gas Today Faces Weather Headwinds

The price of natural gas today reflects a curious disconnect in the market: while liquefied natural gas exports hit record levels, domestic futures prices are struggling to gain traction. This split reveals an important insight for equity investors—short-term price volatility may be masking genuine long-term value in carefully selected energy stocks.

The Weather-Driven Price Squeeze

Early 2026 brought a reality check for natural gas bulls. The U.S. benchmark contract settled around $3.618 per million British thermal units on Friday, failing to sustain gains above $4 despite structural tailwinds from LNG demand. What’s weighing on the market? Three factors converging simultaneously: forecasts pointing to warmer-than-normal conditions through mid-January, storage withdrawal data showing only 38 billion cubic feet (below expectations), and robust domestic production levels that continue to cap upside.

This creates a short-term bearish case that’s difficult to ignore. Yet beneath the surface, the fundamentals for natural gas remain intact.

Where LNG Strength Meets Production Reality

Here’s where the disconnect becomes clearest. U.S. LNG export terminals are operating near capacity, with December feedgas flows reaching new peaks. Overseas demand remains structurally strong, providing an essential outlet for surging domestic supply. Yet this export strength has merely prevented deeper price declines rather than propelling prices higher—a sign that near-term supply abundance is overwhelming even robust international appetite.

The irony: record production and record LNG exports coexist with price weakness. For equity investors, this environment typically separates winners from losers. Companies with low-cost operations and geographic advantages benefit most when prices are under pressure.

Three Names Worth Monitoring

EQT Corporation dominates the conversation for good reason. As the leading natural gas producer by volume, the company draws over 90% of its production mix from Appalachian Basin assets spanning Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The track record speaks volumes—EQT has beaten consensus earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters, with an average surprise of 16.7%.

Expand Energy emerged as America’s largest natural gas producer following its Chesapeake-Southwestern combination. The merged entity controls premium acreage in the Haynesville and Marcellus formations, positioning it to capture upside from expanding LNG exports, AI data center buildouts, and electrification trends. Analysts project a 317.7% year-over-year earnings surge for 2025, though near-term price pressure warrants caution.

Coterra Energy operates 186,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale, with natural gas representing over 60% of total production. The Houston-based independent carries a three-to-five-year earnings growth projection of 27.8%—significantly above the industry average of 17.2%. Trading above $20 billion in market value, Coterra trades at a discount to growth expectations.

The Investment Thesis: Time Over Timing

Attempting to trade natural gas price swings is a loser’s game for most investors. Instead, focus on when the weather turns colder or when inventory data tightens the supply picture—these moments often create entry opportunities for quality producers. The broader LNG demand story remains constructive, and winter hasn’t yet delivered the cold snaps that could tighten supply balances significantly.

For patient capital, price-of-natural-gas weakness today represents tomorrow’s upside in fundamentally sound companies. The disconnect between export demand and domestic pricing won’t persist indefinitely.