The impact of Bitcoin halvings continues to evolve. While the supply shock remains real, the market dynamics have shifted dramatically. Today's landscape is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic policy, ETF capital flows, and institutional adoption rather than halving mechanics alone.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% (December 10, 2025) signals changing monetary conditions. Meanwhile, major financial institutions are opening doors—Bank of America expanded its crypto ETP access starting January 5, 2026, removing friction for traditional investors seeking exposure.

Historically, post-halving periods delivered substantial rallies, but they also came with severe corrections. The data shows volatility remains a feature, not a bug. What's different now: institutional guardrails, derivative markets, and macro regime sensitivity create a more complex price discovery process. BTC's next cycle likely depends less on supply scarcity and more on whether institutions sustain their capital deployment.