Roku Gets Green Light from Arete Research with Buy Rating Amid Mixed Institutional Signals

On January 5, 2026, Arete Research flipped their stance on Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) from Neutral to Buy, marking a notable shift in market sentiment toward the streaming platform. However, a closer look at what major institutions are actually doing with their Roku positions reveals a more complicated picture than the upgrade might suggest.

The Analyst Case for Roku

The upgrade comes with a projected upside of 2.67% from the current trading level. As of mid-December 2025, Wall Street’s consensus price target sits at $117.75 per share, with estimates ranging broadly from $73.73 on the bearish end to $152.25 for the bulls. This spread reflects genuine disagreement about the company’s trajectory. Revenue forecasts point to a 5.63% annual increase reaching 4,799MM, though the projected non-GAAP EPS remains negative at -2.92, signaling ongoing profitability challenges.

What’s Really Happening with Big Money

The fund positioning data tells an interesting story that contrasts with Arete’s optimistic upgrade. While 976 funds and institutions collectively hold Roku positions—up by 17 owners from the prior quarter—the aggregate institutional ownership signal is mixed at best. Average portfolio allocation across all funds dedicated to Roku stands at just 0.21%, though this represents a 9.46% increase in relative weighting.

Over the past three months, institutional share ownership grew modestly by 0.21% to 126,007K shares. Yet the put/call ratio of 1.44 suggests traders are maintaining a bearish bias despite the analyst upgrade.

How the Heavyweights Are Moving

Most large shareholders have actually been trimming their Roku exposure rather than buying into the Arete thesis:

Fidelity Advisor Growth Opportunities Fund (FAGAX) slashed its position from 10,096K to 8,971K shares—a 12.54% reduction. The fund simultaneously cut its ROKU portfolio weight by 24.35%, signaling active de-emphasis.

ARK Investment Management reduced holdings from 8,460K to 7,352K shares, down 15.07%. This move represents a 19.62% decline in portfolio allocation, suggesting the growth-focused firm sees better opportunities elsewhere.

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) added slightly to its position, moving from 5,809K to 5,917K shares (+1.82%), yet paradoxically decreased its portfolio weighting by 10.93%—indicating the fund’s overall portfolio is simply growing faster than Roku holdings.

Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) showed genuine conviction by both adding shares from 4,059K to 4,147K (+2.12%) and increasing portfolio allocation by 13.73%.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings cut sharply, dropping from 4,452K to 3,689K shares—a 20.69% decrease with a 12.83% reduction in portfolio weight.

The Bottom Line

Arete’s upgrade provides a contrarian view worth monitoring, but institutional behavior suggests caution. The overwhelming majority of major holders are either reducing exposure or maintaining minimal weightings, which often speaks louder than analyst ratings. Investors should weigh this upgrade against the reality that big money is generally stepping back from Roku at current levels.