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Soybean Futures Retreating Thursday Morning After Strong Wednesday Rally
The soybean market is taking a breather on Thursday morning, with prices easing 1-2 cents as traders consolidate gains from the prior session’s strong performance. Wednesday’s session delivered a significant bullish surge, sending front-month contracts up 10-11 cents and drawing fresh capital into the complex. Open interest climbed by 4,067 contracts, signaling active participation across the market.
The cash market reflected this strength, with the national average cash bean price advancing 11 1/2 cents to settle at $9.94 3/4. Soybean meal futures showed particular vigor, ranging $3.70 to $6.80 higher, though soy oil futures moved in the opposite direction, declining 8-18 points on the session. Overnight activity included 142 deliveries against January soybeans and 70 against bean oil contracts.
USDA Export and Production Data Ahead
With USDA returning to its standard Export Sales release schedule, the market is bracing for this week’s export expectations. Analysts are forecasting soybean sales for 2025/26 to fall between 0.75-1.3 million metric tons during the week of January 1st. Forward sales for 2026/27 are projected in a narrower band of 0-300,000 MT. Soybean meal bookings face estimates of 100,000-350,000 MT, while soybean oil is expected to post 0-30,000 MT in weekly sales.
More significant is Monday’s approaching Crop Production report. The annual USDA data release is anticipated to finalize the 2025 soybean yield estimate at 52.7 bushels per acre, with total production pegged at 4.23 billion bushels according to Bloomberg’s analyst survey.
Contract Snapshot
January 2026 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.52 3/4 (up 10 3/4 cents), now down 1 3/4 cents Thursday morning
March 2026 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.67 (up 10 3/4 cents), currently declining 1 1/4 cents
May 2026 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.78 3/4 (up 10 3/4 cents), down 1 cent on Thursday morning
Nearby Cash: Holding at $9.94 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents from Wednesday
The pullback after Wednesday’s momentum suggests profit-taking among bullish traders, though the underlying support from USDA forecast updates could re-ignite buying interest as the week progresses.