QCOM's Latest MACD Crossover Mirrors November's 10% Plunge—Are We About to See History Repeat?

Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) has been sending mixed signals to traders as 2026 kicks off. While the mega-cap tech name remains up roughly 40% since April, recent price action has become increasingly murky. Just before the holidays, the stock flashed a bearish MACD crossover—a technical pattern that, the last time it appeared in November, preceded a sharp 10% decline within two weeks. The question now is whether this historical precedent will play out again.

The Pattern That Spooked Traders in November

Less than two months ago, Qualcomm delivered a déjà vu moment that sent shivers down the spines of technical traders. The stock had surged to multi-year highs, but then printed a bearish MACD crossover in early November. What followed was swift and brutal: shares tumbled more than 10% over the subsequent fortnight.

That same technical setup has now resurfaced as the new year begins. The MACD crossover that materialized just before Christmas has continued to deteriorate and gather momentum into this week. With Qualcomm having retreated roughly 15% from its late-October peak and now trading in a tightening range around $174, the parallels are hard to ignore.

What This MACD Signal Actually Means for Price Action

The MACD—moving average convergence divergence—operates as a momentum tracker by monitoring the spread between two moving averages. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer one, it telegraphs a shift: upside momentum is waning and sellers are seizing control.

What makes the current signal particularly noteworthy is its context. MACD crossovers tend to carry more weight when they surface after sustained rallies rather than random dips. Qualcomm’s climb since April ranks among its most impressive multi-month runs in years. Against that backdrop, the sudden bearish divergence suggests that buyers may be stepping back rather than doubling down—a material shift in market psychology.

However, the mere appearance of a bearish MACD crossover doesn’t guarantee a breakdown. What it does signal is vulnerability. If bulls fail to reassert control promptly, the stock could be vulnerable to sliding further, especially given how price reacted the last time this exact scenario unfolded.

Why the Setup Could Be Different This Time

Not everyone is bracing for a repeat of November’s bloodbath. There are legitimate reasons for cautious optimism.

For starters, Qualcomm hasn’t just retreated from an all-time high the way it did in November. Instead, the stock is consolidating within a tighter band—a pattern that, under the right conditions, can precede a breakout rather than a breakdown. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, suggesting the stock could be coiling ahead of its next leg higher rather than beginning to crumble.

The fundamentals also remain robust. Expectations are building for Qualcomm to beat consensus estimates when it reports earnings in early February, its first earnings report of 2026. Beyond the quarterly results, the company’s ongoing diversification efforts continue gaining traction, and improving investor perception is supporting a constructive longer-term narrative. TradeSmith’s Health Indicator, a volatility-based gauge, has consistently ranked Qualcomm in the green zone for six consecutive months—a bullish endorsement.

The Critical Levels That Will Determine Direction

The next move hinges on a relatively simple threshold. If QCOM continues drifting below $172, the odds of a more serious correction—potentially mirroring November’s 10% drop—would rise considerably. Conversely, if buyers step in decisively and the MACD crossover reverses back into bullish territory, this could ultimately prove to be a false alarm within a broader uptrend.

Qualcomm has worked hard to rebuild trust after years of disappointing investors with repeated false starts. The stock’s 40% gain since spring has earned it some capital with the bulls, but that goodwill is finite. Over the coming week or two, the market will force a decision: breakout or breakdown. With fundamentals pointing higher and technicals flashing caution, Qualcomm is at an inflection point. Traders watching this MACD crossover will be keenly attuned to which way the stock ultimately breaks.