US Soy Oil Climbs Amid Strong Bean Complex Rally

MetaEggplant · 2026-01-12T17:20:52+00:00

The soybean market shows strength, with prices rising and physical market activity supporting this trend. However, mixed export data reveals challenges, as current commitments lag behind last year's pace. Key reports ahead may impact future price stability.

MetaEggplant

2026-01-12 17:20:52

Abstract generation in progress

The soybean complex is displaying considerable strength in midday trading, with soybeans posting gains ranging from 2 to 5¾ cents. Contributing to this momentum, US soy oil futures are advancing 30 to 40 points, while soybean meal futures have surged 30 cents to reach $1.20 on Friday.

Physical market activity reflects the bullish undertone. The national cash soybean price sits at $9.91, up 3 cents according to cmdtyView data. Contract deliveries overnight showed 84 notices against January soybeans, with 52 issued against meal and 166 against January oil contracts.

Export dynamics present a mixed picture. A private export sale of 198,000 MT to undisclosed destinations hit the market this morning via USDA reporting. However, the broader export picture shows some structural concerns. Current US soybean export commitments total 28.576 MMT as of January 1st, representing only 29% of the same period last year’s pace. This translates to 64% of USDA’s full-year projection, trailing the historical average sales pace of 82%.

Shipment performance is lagging even more noticeably, down 45% year-over-year at 16.347 MMT—just 37% of forecast versus a typical 57% average. This shortfall underscores demand challenges despite the recent price strength.

International supply moves are capturing attention. China’s state grain trader Sinograin announced an auction of 1.1 MMT of imported soybeans (spanning 2022-2025 origination) scheduled for January 13, signaling potential demand shifts in the world’s largest buyer.

What’s ahead? The WASDE report drops Monday with closely watched projections. Bloomberg’s analyst survey expects 2025/26 soybean ending stocks to land at 295 mbu—a modest 5 mbu monthly increase. Traders will scrutinize whether tighter ending stocks support current price levels or if export weakness forces a repricing.

Futures contract snapshot:

Jan 26 Soybeans: $10.52¾, +5¾ cents
Nearby Cash: $9.91, +3 cents
Mar 26 Soybeans: $10.64, +2¾ cents
May 26 Soybeans: $10.75¾, +2½ cents

The near-term tension centers on whether export demand can sustain the complex’s upside momentum or if slowing sales eventually weigh on the rally.

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