Wheat Export Momentum Picks Up Despite Friday Price Pullback

LiquidationAlert · 2026-01-12T17:16:20+00:00

Global wheat demand remains strong, with export commitments up 18% year-on-year. Despite modest price declines in futures markets, actual shipments have exceeded expectations, supporting a tighter supply forecast ahead of the USDA report.

LiquidationAlert

2026-01-12 17:16:20

Abstract generation in progress

Global wheat demand is showing resilience as export commitments surge ahead of year-ago levels, even as futures prices trimmed gains during Friday’s session. The wheat market’s weakness appears modest in context of strong underlying demand dynamics.

Export Data Signals Strength

Wheat export commitments have climbed to 20.228 MMT as of January 1, representing an 18% year-over-year increase. This puts cumulative sales tracking at 83% of the USDA’s full-year projection and aligns with the typical seasonal sales pace. More impressively, actual wheat shipments have reached 15.16 MMT, up 21% compared to the same period last year—already fulfilling 61% of the USDA export target, surpassing the historical 57% average shipping rate.

Market Price Adjustments Across Contracts

Friday trading brought moderate pressure across wheat futures markets. Chicago’s soft red winter contract declined fractionally, while Kansas City hard red winter futures fell 1-2 cents on most expirations. Minneapolis spring wheat showed the largest decline, down 2-3 cents at midday trading.

Specific contract prices reflected this softness:

CBOT Wheat (Mar 26): $5.17½, down ½ cent
CBOT Wheat (May 26): $5.28¾, down ¼ cent
KCBT Wheat (Mar 26): $5.28¾, down 1½ cents
KCBT Wheat (May 26): $5.41¼, down 1¾ cents
MIAX Wheat (Mar 26): $5.68½, down 2¾ cents
MIAX Wheat (May 26): $5.79¼, down 2¼ cents

USDA Forecast Ahead

The upcoming WASDE report scheduled for Monday release is expected to trim wheat ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 896 million bushels, reflecting the tighter supply picture supported by robust export demand. Strong shipment momentum and above-average export commitments suggest the market’s fundamental underpinnings remain constructive despite near-term price hesitation.

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