How Levi Strauss Salary & Earnings Performance May Shape Stock Movements

Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE: LEVI) is preparing to release its fiscal Q2 earnings this Thursday, July 10, 2025, with Wall Street expecting adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share and revenue hitting $1.37 billion. These figures paint a challenging picture compared to last year—a 19% drop in earnings and 5% decline in sales from the prior year’s $0.16 per share and $1.44 billion respectively.

Historical Track Record: When Levi Earnings Beat Expectations

The stock has demonstrated an interesting pattern around earnings announcements. Over the past five years, LEVI showed positive one-day returns about 53% of the time following earnings releases, with a typical single-day gain of 4.2% and a peak increase of 9%. However, this success rate dips to just 33% when looking at only the most recent three years of data—a notable shift that deserves attention from event-driven traders.

Breaking down the numbers: among 17 recorded earnings events over five years, 9 produced positive one-day returns (median gain: 4.2%) while 8 showed negative performance (median loss: -7.7%).

The Tariff Challenge & Margin Outlook

U.S. tariffs present a headwind for the apparel manufacturer, though Levi management expects only minimal Q2 margin pressure and is exploring selective price adjustments. The company projects organic revenue growth between 3.5% and 4.5% this quarter, with gross margins expanding by 80–100 basis points.

For the full fiscal year, revenue is anticipated to decline 1–2% (setting aside tariff impacts), while gross margin should climb roughly 100 basis points to 61.6%. The company carries a $7.8 billion market cap, with trailing twelve-month revenue of $6.3 billion, operating profits of $647 million, and net income of $356 million.

Finding Trading Edges Through Return Correlations

Beyond simple 1-day patterns, a more sophisticated approach examines how immediate post-earnings moves correlate with medium-term performance. If traders identify strong correlation between 1-day and 5-day returns, for instance, they could position themselves accordingly—going long on the next five trading days if the first-day reaction is positive.

The 5-year historical data reveals varying correlation levels between 1-day, 5-day, and 21-day returns, offering different risk-reward scenarios for tactical traders who want to capitalize on earnings volatility without excessive overnight exposure.

Key Takeaway

Understanding Levi Strauss’ historical earnings patterns provides a framework, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Event-driven investors can either position ahead of Thursday’s announcement based on historical odds, or wait for the actual reaction and trade the correlation patterns that follow. Either way, the data suggests outcomes aren’t random—they’re worth studying before placing your bet.