Zinc Price Today and 2026 Outlook: What Market Watchers Are Saying

Zinc wrapped up 2025 near its starting point, but the road ahead looks complicated. The metal that powers galvanized steel ended December around US$3,088 per metric ton—where it began the year at US$2,927. Yet between those bookends lies a story of volatility driven by housing market headwinds, shifting trade policies, and a persistent mismatch between supply and demand that’s creating tension in the zinc market.

How Zinc Performed Through 2025

The year opened quietly, with zinc sitting flat through the first quarter. Real trouble arrived in April when the metal tumbled 14 percent to US$2,562—a yearly low—as traders reacted to tariff announcements and recession concerns. The drop made sense: tariffs threaten manufacturing and construction, both major zinc consumers.

From that trough onward, zinc price today has climbed steadily. By late June it had recovered to US$2,753. Q3 and Q4 brought consistent gains, pushing the zinc price to US$2,954 by September and US$3,088 by year-end. The overall trajectory suggests buyers have gradually returned, even as fundamental challenges persist.

The Supply-Demand Puzzle Nobody’s Solving

Here’s where things get messy. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) flagged a 2025 market surplus of 85,000 MT. Mine output surged to 10.51 million MT through October—up from 9.87 million MT a year earlier. Refined production climbed to 11.52 million MT from 11.12 million MT. Demand did rise, hitting 11.44 million MT, but it couldn’t keep pace with production growth.

Strangest part? LME inventories collapsed anyway, dropping from 230,325 MT on January 2 to just 33,825 MT by November 1. Despite oversupply conditions, the metal’s unavailability pushed zinc prices higher during much of the year—a market dysfunction that kept hedging costs elevated.

Why the Housing Markets Matter So Much

Zinc demand is almost entirely hostage to construction. The US housing sector faced affordability crises, stagnant new starts, and a glut of unsold inventory. Mortgage rates stayed elevated, keeping buyers sidelined.

China’s situation proved even worse. The country’s real estate market remains in freefall four years after Evergrande’s collapse. November sales from China’s top 100 developers fell 36 percent versus 2024—and slid 19 percent through the first 11 months of 2025. Government stimulus hasn’t moved the needle. This means Chinese demand, which the ILZSG expected to rise 1.3 percent in 2025, will likely flatline in 2026.

What’s Coming for Zinc Price in 2026

The surplus situation is about to get bigger. The ILZSG predicts a 271,000 MT global zinc surplus for 2026—more than triple this year’s surplus. Refined output is forecast to jump 2.4 percent to 14.13 million MT. New mine capacity entering the market includes:

• Restart of Portugal’s Almina-Minas Aljustrel mine
• Commissioning of Bunker Hill Mining’s Idaho flagship mine
• Launch of China’s Xinjiang Huoshaoyun mine (destined to rank sixth globally among lead-zinc operations)
• Expanded production from existing operations across Europe, Australia, Brazil, and the Democratic Republic of Congo

Global refined demand is expected to grow just 1 percent to 13.86 million MT—nowhere close to covering the new supply.

Price Predictions: A Tale of Two Halves

Fastmarkets expects the zinc price today and through early 2026 to ride momentum from 2025’s LME average of US$3,218. The first half should see strength, particularly as Chinese production runs surplus while global demand remains patchy.

By H2 2026, however, the surplus will bite harder. Prices are seen declining as the market transitions toward better global balance—assuming demand doesn’t unexpectedly accelerate.

Morgan Stanley recently shifted its 2026 forecast to US$2,900 yearly average, signaling material downside risk versus current levels.

Wildcards That Could Reshape the Outlook

Trump administration policy on infrastructure could surprise upside. If construction spending jumps meaningfully, zinc demand would follow. Zinc holds critical mineral designation in the US for defense and infrastructure steel, potentially benefiting domestic and allied producers like South32, whose Hermosa project already won expedited regulatory approval.

US-China trade tensions represent a double-edged sword. If tariffs escalate, Western producers gain competitive advantage—but global recession risk rises, crushing demand.

Manufacturer positioning remains cautious. Long-term contracts have stalled amid low LME inventory uncertainty. Producers are taking a wait-and-see stance rather than committing to forward buys, which keeps price discovery muddled and volatility elevated.

The Bottom Line

Zinc faces a classic bear setup: surplus supplies meeting weak demand growth. The zinc price today reflects temporary tightness in physical markets, but structural imbalances loom. For patient investors, 2026 could offer buying opportunities if prices fall toward US$2,600–US$2,700 support. For traders, expect sideways chop and risk-off moves into the second half.

The metal’s near-term destiny hinges on two questions: Does China’s stimulus finally move the housing needle? And will US infrastructure policy actually materialize? Until those answers clarify, expect the zinc market to grind lower despite headline surplus figures looking more alarming than the reality on the ground.