Strength Emerges Across Soybean Complex as Export Momentum Slows

2026-01-12 17:08:55

The soybean complex displayed notable resilience during midday trading, with meal and oil contracts posting solid gains. Soymeal futures climbed 30 cents to reach $1.20, while the US soybean oil price demonstrated strength with advances of 30 to 40 points on the session. Bean contracts themselves moved higher by 2 to 5¾ cents, creating a mixed but generally supportive tone across the sector.

Cash Market Dynamics and Physical Movement

The cmdtyView national average for cash beans stands at $9.91, reflecting a 3-cent uptick from the previous level. January delivery activity continued with 84 additional contracts settled overnight—52 against meal and 166 against oil futures. More significantly, the USDA reported a private export sale of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans directed to undisclosed destinations, signaling ongoing international demand.

Export Sales Lag Behind Historical Pace

Current USDA export sales commitments have reached 28.576 MMT as of January 1st, representing just 64% of the agency’s full-year export projection. This trails the typical 82% average sales pace substantially. Year-to-date comparisons show a 29% increase relative to the same period in 2024/25, yet actual shipment volumes tell a different story. Shipments currently stand at 16.347 MMT—down 45% from year-ago levels—putting the market at only 37% of the USDA forecast and well below the historical 57% average pace.

China’s Market Intervention and Forward Outlook

Sinograin, China’s state-controlled grain stockpiler, announced an auction of 1.1 MMT of imported soybeans sourced from 2022-2025 inventory for January 13. This move suggests potential Chinese demand for available supplies. Looking ahead, the USDA’s WASDE report scheduled for Monday release is expected to project 2025/26 soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels per the Bloomberg analyst consensus—a 5 mbu monthly increase that could influence near-term pricing.

Contract-by-Contract Movement

Front-month January 26 soybeans settled at $10.52¾, up 5¾ cents, while the nearby cash market mirrors this strength at $9.91. March 26 contracts advanced 2¾ cents to $10.64, with May 26 beans gaining 2½ cents to close at $10.75¾. The gradual steepening of the forward curve reflects typical seasonal patterns as new-crop uncertainty remains.

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