Mixed Wheat Trading Signals Emerge as Contracts Show Strength on Tuesday Morning and Beyond

BoredStaker · 2026-01-12T17:06:24+00:00

Wheat markets showed mixed trends, with soft red winter wheat prices rising while spring wheat edged up modestly. Export data revealed a significant decline in shipments, and sales were below expectations, indicating potential demand issues. Managed money increased short positions in CBOT wheat.

BoredStaker

2026-01-12 17:06:24

Abstract generation in progress

Wheat markets displayed conflicting signals heading into the new week, with soft red winter varieties maintaining their upward momentum while spring wheat moved modestly. The three major exchanges saw predominantly positive closes on Monday, supporting short-covering activity as open interest contracted by 4,044 contracts.

Price Action Across Major Exchanges

Chicago CBOT soft red wheat futures gained between 5-6 cents per bushel, with March contracts settling at $5.12 1/2 (up 6 cents) and May at $5.23 1/2 (up 5 1/4 cents). Kansas City KCBT hard red winter wheat outperformed slightly with March positions up 5 3/4 cents to $5.20 3/4, while May delivery rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.33 1/4. Minneapolis MIAX spring wheat showed less enthusiasm, with March closing marginally higher at $5.71 1/4 and May adding just 1/4 cent to finish at $5.82 3/4.

Export Data Reveals Weakness

The latest Export Inspections report painted a more sobering picture, documenting only 183,305 metric tons of wheat shipments during the week ending January 1st—a significant 42.47% decline from the previous week and 55.57% lower than year-ago levels. The Philippines emerged as the leading destination with 74,996 MT, followed by Mexico (70,722 MT) and Japan (33,571 MT). Despite the weekly weakness, the marketing year cumulative total reached 15.263 million metric tons, representing a 19.64% improvement compared to the same period last year.

USDA Sales Disappointing Market Expectations

Export sales during the Christmas week proved underwhelming, with only 95,385 metric tons recorded against trade expectations ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 MT. This figure marked a marketing year low and represented a 32.15% decrease from the comparable week in the prior year, potentially signaling reduced demand or buyer hesitancy.

Managed Money and Speculator Positioning

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders snapshot revealed managed money had increased net short exposure in CBOT wheat futures and options to 94,626 contracts as of December 30th. In Kansas City wheat, speculative funds maintained a net short position of 18,319 contracts as of last Tuesday, though this represented a reduction of 6,430 contracts from the previous week, suggesting some short liquidation in the pit.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.