Corn Futures Navigate Modest Swings as Export Demand Stumbles

Corn futures wrapped up Thursday’s subdued trading session with minimal price movements across different contract months, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The nationally averaged cash corn price retreated by a quarter cent to settle at $4.08 1/2 per bushel, according to CmdtyView data, signaling a downward pressure in the spot market.

Export Sales Disappoint Against Expectations

The morning’s Export Sales report delivered disappointing numbers that failed to match analyst expectations. Only 377,598 metric tons of corn were purchased during the week ending January 1, falling well short of the projected 0.7-1.5 million metric ton range for the 2025/26 marketing year. This volume represented a marketing year low, marking a concerning 15.1% decline compared to the same period last year. South Korea emerged as the top buyer with 139,000 MT purchases, while Japan secured 108,100 MT. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, sales remained minimal at just 11,860 MT, sitting within but toward the lower end of the 0-100,000 MT forecast band.

October Export Surge Offers Some Bright Spots

Census data revealed a record export performance in October, with 6.564 million metric tons (248.5 million bushels) of corn shipped during the month. Despite this impressive figure, it represented a 5.93% sequential decline from September, though year-over-year comparisons painted a rosier picture with a 63.38% increase versus October 2024. Distillers’ grain exports maintained momentum near last year’s October record at 1.067 million metric tons. Ethanol shipments accelerated to record monthly pace levels at 185 million gallons, demonstrating strength in value-added product exports.

Futures Pricing and Stock Expectations

March 26 corn futures closed at $4.46, down three-quarters of a cent, while nearby cash corn remained at $4.08 1/2 after declining a quarter cent. May 26 contracts held steady with no change, closing unchanged, whereas July 26 futures gained modest ground, moving up three-quarters of a cent to $4.60 1/2. Market participants now await Monday’s USDA WASDE report with heightened interest. Bloomberg consensus indicates analysts expect ending stocks to be calculated at 1.985 billion bushels—a reduction of 44 million bushels from previous expectations if these projections materialize.