2026 is about to usher in a new cycle in the crypto market. Recently, global top investment bank Standard Chartered released a major forecast: Ethereum (ETH) will significantly outperform the market next year, with a target price of $7,500.

What is the logic behind this prediction? From a data perspective, several key indicators are flashing green.

**Institutional Lock-up, Supply and Demand Pattern Completely Rewritten**

As of January 2026, 67 institutions hold a total of 6.8835 million ETH, accounting for 5.63% of the circulating supply, with a total market value exceeding $21.4 billion. Among them, the leading player BitMine has the largest holdings, with 4.07 million ETH on hand, plus 910,000 ETH staked for yield, while maintaining $915 million in cash reserves to continue increasing holdings. The total size of spot ETFs has also surpassed $20 billion, with signs of institutions accumulating on dips becoming increasingly obvious. What does this change mean? The market, previously dominated by retail investors, is shifting toward institutional-driven dynamics.

**Technical Upgrades, Performance Set for a Qualitative Leap**

2026 will be a big year for Ethereum technology. The Glamsterdam upgrade in the first half of the year will optimize the MEV mechanism and network decentralization. In the second half, the Hegota upgrade will implement Verkle tree architecture, which can thoroughly solve the long-standing state bloat problem. Based on previous groundwork, L1 layer TPS is expected to surpass 10,000, and transaction fees on L2 could decrease by another 40%-90%. Standard Chartered explicitly states that these technological iterations will drive the ETH/BTC ratio back to the high levels of 2021, while widening the gap with other public chains.

**Deep Ecosystem Barriers, Earning Trillions in Dividends**

Ethereum’s dominance in several core sectors is formidable: 62% market share in stablecoins, 68% of total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, and a 65.5% share in the RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) field. The on-chain tokenized asset scale has reached $12.5 billion, and major Wall Street institutions are continuously bringing government bonds and credit assets onto the chain. According to expectations, the RWA market could expand tenfold by 2026, and Ethereum, as a compliant settlement layer, can directly benefit from this trillion-dollar opportunity.

**Cycle Shift, Institutional-led Slow Bull Is Inevitable**

The temperament of the crypto market is changing. The previous retail-led, volatile boom-and-bust pattern is gone. We are now entering a new phase driven by institutions and industrialized operations. Standard Chartered’s downward revision of short-term targets mainly reflects reduced overall market volatility, not a weakening of fundamentals. On the contrary, ETH, as the preferred asset for institutions to hedge systemic risks, shows even more structural advantages in a weak market.

The $7,500 target price from Standard Chartered essentially recognizes Ethereum’s leading position. By 2026, ETH may not be the most rapidly appreciating coin, but it will undoubtedly be the most stable core asset.