ETH trend once again enters a stalemate phase, with the short-term direction's decision-making power resting on the performance of each upcoming hour.

**Key Levels Are Clear at a Glance**

Looking upward, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 3125.62 is the battleground for today's repeated attempts to break through, with multiple surges failing to stabilize. Further up, the upper Bollinger Band at 3162.55 acts as a short-term strong resistance.

Looking downward, the lower Bollinger Band at 3088.70 is the critical support line. Once this level is effectively broken with accompanying volume, the short-term bullish pattern will shift. Currently, the closing price is 3120.56, stuck below the middle band, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues.

**What Do Moving Averages and Indicators Say?**

EMA(7) and EMA(30) are at 3115.54 and 3118.93 respectively, with the two lines intertwined. The price is barely above the short-term moving averages, but this is not enough to form a strong bullish arrangement. The MACD is more interesting — DIF and DEA are still below the zero line and haven't risen yet, but the green bars are gradually shortening (MACD value has rebounded from lower levels to -7.49), indicating that the selling pressure is waning and the rebound momentum is building.

After bottoming out at 3091.60 yesterday and bouncing back, the lower shadow protected the price, but the high point above did not break the previous high of 3126.52. This pattern is a oscillating rebound, not particularly strong.

**What to Watch Next**

From a technical perspective, to open up real upward space, ETH needs to break through the 3126 level with increased volume. If it can't break out, it will continue to oscillate between 3088 and 3162. There are no major news events at the moment, but the change in risk appetite during the US stock market open in the early hours is worth noting, as crypto assets tend to correlate with risk assets. On-chain whale activity has not shown abnormal transfers for now; currently, retail investors are still battling each other.

The two most important points to watch are: first, whether the price can effectively stay above 3126 and maintain that level; second, whether the MACD can form a golden cross below the zero line. Once these certainty signals appear, the trend will become clearer.