APLD vs NBIS: Which AI Infrastructure Play Deserves Your Attention?

Two Different Bets on the AI Boom

Applied Digital and Nebius have both ridden the AI wave impressively—each stock has more than tripled in the past year. But they’re playing different angles in the AI infrastructure space.

Applied Digital focuses on building and operating data center campuses, leasing capacity to companies that need computing power but don’t want to build their own infrastructure. Think of it as the real estate play in AI.

Nebius takes a different approach. It runs its own data centers and offers customized cloud-based AI infrastructure services—a “full stack” solution that bundles hardware, software, and managed services together.

The Applied Digital Story: Real Estate With a Twist

Applied Digital started chasing Bitcoin miners back in the day, then pivoted hard toward cloud, AI, and high-performance computing in 2022. The core play is straightforward: build data centers, power them up, lease the space.

Here’s where it gets complicated. In 2023, Applied Digital launched Sai Computing to compete directly in the cloud AI market using Nvidia’s GPUs. That created friction—Sai was unprofitable and was going head-to-head with some of its own hosting clients, including tech giants. Awkward.

So Applied Digital decided to spin off Sai and merge it with EKSO Bionics to form ChronoScale, expected to happen in the first half of 2025. That spin-off will crimp near-term growth, but it refocuses the core business on what it does best: real estate.

The upside? Applied Digital has already locked in $16 billion in lease commitments over the next 15 years, mostly from CoreWeave, an AI infrastructure company on a growth tear. The company plans to double its Polaris Forge 1 campus capacity in the coming years.

For 2026, analysts expect Applied Digital’s revenue to hit $297 million (38% growth), though it’ll still be running a $91 million net loss. At an enterprise value of $8 billion, that’s 27x sales—pricey on the surface. But if those long-term leases eventually generate over $1 billion in annual revenue, the valuation might actually make sense.

The catch: becoming a REIT (which would unlock tax-efficient dividend payments) is still years away because of ongoing losses.

The Nebius Angle: From Russia to the AI Stack

Nebius has an unusual backstory. It was previously Yandex, Russia’s search giant with a sprawling ecosystem of apps and cloud services. Russian sanctions forced a major reset in 2022—suspended shares, relocated to the Netherlands, spun off Russian assets, and emerged as Nebius.

The reboot? A clean-slate play on AI infrastructure. Nebius installs cutting-edge AI servers in its own data centers (all located in the US and Europe) and leases computing power to companies that want managed, customized solutions. It’s not just raw GPU rental—it’s bundled services for data training, edtech, automation, and robotics.

The credentials are solid: big contracts already signed with Microsoft and Meta Platforms signal serious enterprise traction.

Nebius is projecting aggressive monthly run-rate revenues that could reach $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end 2025. (That’s not 2026 revenue—yet—but it shows where the company is headed.)

Analyst expectations for 2026: Nebius revenue could soar 521% to $3.45 billion. For 2027, another 125% jump to $7.8 billion. It’ll stay unprofitable while scaling data center capacity, but economies of scale should eventually kick in.

At $24 billion enterprise value, Nebius trades at just 7x sales—significantly cheaper than Applied Digital, even with its explosive growth trajectory.

The Valuation Question

This is where it gets interesting. Applied Digital’s 27x sales multiple looks excessive compared to Nebius’s 7x, but context matters:

• Applied Digital has locked-in long-term revenue from reliable enterprise customers, providing revenue visibility
• Nebius is in growth-at-all-costs mode, burning cash to expand capacity—the lower multiple might reflect concern about profitability timeline

Both companies will remain unprofitable in 2026 as they build infrastructure. The question is whether you’re betting on Applied Digital’s steady-Eddie data center model or Nebius’s high-growth “full stack” ambitions.

The Bottom Line

If forced to choose between these two AI infrastructure players right now, the numbers favor Nebius. It’s growing faster, trading at a lower valuation multiple, and has clearer near-term catalysts. Applied Digital faces execution risk around the ChronoScale spin-off and needs to prove its core leasing business can scale sustainably.

That said, both are in markets with substantial tailwinds. The real risk isn’t choosing between them—it’s predicting which AI infrastructure architecture will win out in a market that’s still finding its footing.