TSX Copper Stocks Deliver Exceptional Gains in 2025: A Year Shaped by Supply Tightness and Strategic Approvals

The copper market in 2025 painted a complex picture—one moment marked by recession fears and trade tensions, the next by supply concerns and surging demand from AI infrastructure and renewable energy projects. By year-end, prices stabilized around a supportive level as the sector grappled with a widening supply-demand imbalance projected to deepen into 2026. Two major mine disruptions—Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula closure following seismic activity and Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg shutdown due to material ingress—tightened global supplies further. Within this environment, five TSX-listed copper stocks emerged as clear winners. This analysis examines their 2025 performance using data from December 9, 2025, focusing on companies with market caps exceeding C$50 million.

Imperial Metals Surges 334% on Mount Polley Momentum

Imperial Metals (TSX:III) delivered the year’s most dramatic performance, gaining 333.7 percent to reach C$7.98 per share with a C$1.4 billion market capitalization. The mine development company owns the Mount Polley copper-gold asset and holds a 30 percent stake in Red Chris (with Newmont holding the remainder), plus the care-and-maintenance Huckleberry copper mine.

The year proved transformative for Imperial’s flagship Mount Polley. After months of legal wrangling with the Xatśūll First Nation over tailings storage facility expansions, the BC Supreme Court sided with the company in August, dismissing the indigenous group’s injunction challenge. Though an appeal was filed in September, it didn’t target the injunction itself—meaning operations could proceed. In late August, Imperial secured permit amendments authorizing pit expansion and extended mine life.

Production data underscored the company’s improving trajectory. Red Chris copper output climbed 10 percent quarter-on-quarter to 20.9 million pounds in Q3, and year-to-date production through September reached 67.51 million pounds, up 20 percent annually. Huckleberry exploration drilling in November returned encouraging grades, including a 0.81 percent copper and 0.23 g/t gold intersection over 22.6 meters. By December 10, shares touched C$7.95, marking their year-to-date peak.

Meridian Mining Accelerates Development Approvals

Meridian Mining (TSX:MNO) climbed 313.33 percent, with shares reaching C$1.55 and a market cap of C$656.72 million. The exploration-stage company is advancing the Cabaçal copper-gold project in Brazil’s Mato Grosso state, a 50-square-kilometer property hosting an 11-kilometer volcanogenic massive sulfide corridor.

The prefeasibility study released in March painted an attractive picture: US$984 million after-tax NPV, 61 percent IRR, and 17-month payback on 10.6 years of mine life. The resource model identified 204,470 metric tons of contained copper from 51.43 million metric tons of 0.4 percent-grade ore. In May, Meridian tapped Ausenco Brazil as lead engineer to complete a definitive feasibility study targeting H1 2026.

A critical breakthrough arrived November 3 when Brazil’s Mato Grosso state formally approved Cabaçal’s preliminary license—the first of three required for operations. Meridian signaled its next focus: securing the installation license, which would unlock construction rights. The company’s extensive exploration program delivered robust results in October, highlighting 1.4 percent copper equivalent over 27.5 meters, including a 6.1 percent copper equivalent intercept over 6.4 meters. Shares peaked at C$1.65 on December 4.

St. Augustine Gold and Copper Targets Construction Phase

St. Augustine Gold and Copper (TSX:SAU) posted a 300 percent gain, reaching C$0.32 with C$331.75 million market capitalization. The development company is pursuing the King-king copper-gold project in the Philippines’ Davao de Oro province, a 184-claim asset that has attracted investor interest following structural reshuffling and feasibility improvements.

In May, St. Augustine executed a definitive agreement to acquire full development rights through a 100 percent stake in Nadecor’s Kingking Milling subsidiary, compensating the national development firm with C$9.02 million convertible into 185 million shares. Simultaneously, a debt restructuring with Queensberry Mining converted C$1.67 million of liabilities into 25.31 million shares at C$0.066 per share, elevating Queensberry’s holdings to 52 percent.

The July feasibility study modeled robust project economics: US$4.18 billion after-tax NPV, 34.2 percent IRR, and 1.9-year payback assuming US$4.30/lb copper and US$2,150/oz gold prices. The 31-year mine life includes first-five-year average production of 129,000 metric tons of payable copper annually plus 330,000 ounces of gold. By October, St. Augustine engaged Stantec Consulting and Independent Mining Consultants to refine the definitive study, exploring optimizations like chloride leach processing. Year-high shares of C$0.58 appeared July 29.

Trilogy Metals Gains Regulatory Momentum for Alaskan Assets

Trilogy Metals (TSX:TMQ) advanced 269.23 percent to C$6.24, achieving C$1.07 billion market cap. The polymetallic explorer operates Upper Kobuk projects in Northern Alaska through a 50-50 joint venture with South32, with the Arctic copper-zinc-lead-gold-silver project in feasibility stage and Bornite (25 kilometers away) in preliminary assessment mode.

The Arctic project’s February 2023 feasibility study outlined annual payable production of 148.68 million pounds copper, 172.6 million pounds zinc, 25.75 million pounds lead, 32,538 ounces gold, and 2.77 million ounces silver, translating to US$1.11 billion after-tax NPV with 22.8 percent IRR and 3.1-year payback. Bornite’s January preliminary assessment returned US$393.9 million after-tax NPV at 20 percent IRR, with inferred resources of 6.53 billion pounds copper grading 1.42 percent from 208.9 million metric tons.

A major catalyst emerged in October when the US Senate repealed land management restrictions on the Ambler Access Road—a 211-kilometer industrial corridor essential for both projects. That same month, the Department of Defense committed US$17.8 million for 8.22 million shares (10 percent stake) plus warrants for 7.5 percent more post-road-construction, with funds earmarked for exploration. The DoD pledged to facilitate road financing and expedite mine permitting. By October 24, the Alaska Industrial Development Authority had executed right-of-way permits with federal agencies, re-establishing critical authorizations. Shares peaked at C$14.70 on October 14.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Pivots on Political Climate

Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX:NDM) surged 234.12 percent to C$2.84, establishing C$1.53 billion in market value. The exploration-development outfit controls the Pebble project in Alaska’s Bristol Bay region, hosting measured-and-indicated copper resources of 6.5 billion metric tons plus inferred resources of 4.5 billion metric tons, alongside significant molybdenum, gold and silver endowments.

Pebble’s trajectory shifted dramatically following Trump’s March 20, 2025 executive order prioritizing expedited approvals for domestic mineral production, with copper designated as strategically important. This reversed years of regulatory deadlock stemming from a 2020 Environmental Protection Agency veto citing Bristol Bay watershed concerns. Northern Dynasty spent early 2025 negotiating EPA review timelines, securing extensions through June before filing a July motion for summary judgment.

In October, the company briefed the court on veto-removal arguments, with company leadership expressing confidence in the legal case. November brought procedural delays due to government shutdown, extending the Department of Justice opening brief deadline to February 16, 2026, with plaintiff response due April 15, 2026. By December 1, four major industry associations—National Mining Association, American Exploration and Mining Association, Alaska Mining Association, and US Chamber of Commerce—filed supporting amicus briefs emphasizing copper’s criticality to defense, infrastructure and energy systems. Shares reached C$3.89 on October 14.

Investment Outlook for Copper Assets

As copper demand accelerates from AI-driven infrastructure buildouts and electrification efforts, supply constraints loom. The 2025 closures of Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg, combined with lengthening development timelines for projects like Pebble and King-king, underscore structural tightness. For TSX-listed copper stocks, execution on permits, construction commencement and production ramp remain the critical inflection points that could sustain or extend 2025’s notable gains into 2026.