## Global Copper Supply: Which Countries Are Winning the 2024 Production Race?

As 2024 drew to a close, one critical commodity dominated mining discussions—copper. The world's largest copper producing country in the world faced mounting pressure to meet surging demand, yet global output reached 23 million metric tons amid tightening supplies and record price movements. In May alone, copper soared past $5 per pound for the first time, signaling market concerns about future scarcity.

The paradox? Despite these bullish signals, demand from the clean energy transition remained surprisingly subdued. China, traditionally voracious for copper in infrastructure projects, shifted focus to economic stimulus rather than new construction. Yet industry forecasts unanimously point to one outcome: supply deficits lie ahead. For investors tracking the copper cycle, understanding where production comes from has never been more critical.

### The 2024 Copper Production Hierarchy: From Titans to Rising Stars

**Chile: The Undisputed Copper Champion**

The story of 2024 began where it always does—with Chile. This nation maintained its crown as the world's largest copper producing country in the world, delivering 5.3 million metric tons and commanding roughly 23 percent of global supply. The backbone of this dominance? Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, which BHP operates at a 57.5 percent stake alongside Rio Tinto's 30 percent holding. BHP's 2024 share alone totaled 1.13 million metric tons.

Yet Chile's supremacy faces a timeline: new mines are ramping up operations. S&P Global projects Chilean output will rebound to 6 million metric tons in 2025—reaching record territory as fresh capacity comes online.

**The Unexpected Second: Democratic Republic of Congo's Rapid Ascent**

Here's where surprises emerge. The Democratic Republic of Congo leapfrogged traditional rivals to claim 3.3 million metric tons in 2024, more than 11 percent of the global total. This 13 percent jump from 2023's 2.93 million metric tons reflects a structural shift in copper geography.

The catalyst? Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula project (in partnership with China's Zijin Mining Group) hit Phase 3 commercial production in August 2024. That single operation delivered 437,061 metric tons last year and has set guidance for 520,000 to 580,000 metric tons in 2025—underscoring Africa's emerging role as a copper powerhouse.

**Peru's Challenge: Declining Production Despite Historical Strength**

Peru produced 2.6 million metric tons in 2024—a 160,000 metric ton slide from 2023. The culprit? Freeport McMoRan's Cerro Verde mine (Peru's largest) saw a 3.7 percent production drop due to lower leach ore stockpiles and maintenance-related milling rate reductions. Anglo American's Quellaveco and Southern Copper's Tia Maria operations add secondary volume, but the trend poses questions about Peru's future contribution to global copper balance.

**Asia's Production Split: China Dominates Refining, Not Mining**

Here's a counterintuitive reality: China produced just 1.8 million metric tons of copper ore in 2024—down from 1.91 million in 2021. Yet when refined copper enters the equation, China's dominance explodes. The nation refined 12 million metric tons, representing 44 percent of global refined copper and six times Chile's refinery output.

This paradox matters because China also holds the world's highest copper reserves (190 million metric tons). Recent consolidation moves, like Zijin Mining's acquisition of majority control in the Qulong mine (now China's largest), signal aggressive positioning for future production increases.

**Indonesia's Surge: From Sixth Place to Fifth**

Indonesia's 1.1 million metric tons in 2024 marked a watershed moment. The country displaced both the United States and Russia to claim fifth position. More striking? Output surged 21 percent from 2023's 907,000 metric tons and has more than doubled since 2021's 731,000 metric tons.

Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg complex anchors this growth, yet the real story lies in PT Amman Mineral's Batu Hijau mine. Production is forecast to jump to 1.84 billion pounds in 2024 (from 542 million in 2023) as Phase 7 processing activates. Additionally, Amman commissioned a smelting facility in mid-2024 capable of converting 900,000 metric tons of concentrate into 222,000 metric tons of refined copper cathodes annually.

**United States and Russia: Stable But Struggling**

The United States produced 1.1 million metric tons in 2024—nearly tied with Indonesia but representing a sharp 80,000 metric ton decline from 2022. Arizona dominates, accounting for 70 percent of domestic output across just 17 mines. Freeport McMoRan's Morenci mine (Arizona's flagship) produced 700 million pounds in 2024, maintaining its position as North America's production hub.

Russia, meanwhile, climbed to 930,000 metric tons, a 40,000 metric ton increase from 2023 driven primarily by the ramp-up of Udokan Copper's Siberian Udokan mine Phase 1 operations, which contributed 135,000 metric tons despite operational fires at year-end 2023.

**Australia, Kazakhstan, Mexico: The Secondary Producers**

Australia produced 800,000 metric tons in 2024, anchored by BHP's Olympic Dam (which hit a 10-year high at 216,000 metric tons). Notably, Australia holds the world's second-largest copper reserves at 100 million metric tons, trailing only China.

Kazakhstan entered the top 10 for the first time with 740,000 metric tons—representing a meteoric rise from 510,000 metric tons just three years ago. The nation's National Development Plan targets a 40 percent increase in mineral production by 2029, positioning itself as a frontier growth story. KAZ Minerals' Aktogay mine produced 228,800 metric tons last year.

Mexico rounded out the top 10 with 700,000 metric tons from operations like Grupo Mexico's Buenavista del Cobre mine.

### What This Means for Copper Markets

The 2024 data paints a complex picture. The largest copper producing country in the world (Chile) remains entrenched, yet challengers are rising. African supply is accelerating, Asian refineries are consolidating control, and traditional producers face aging asset challenges. With forecasted supply deficits arriving within years and clean energy demand expected to accelerate, the producers listed here will determine whether copper's record 2024 peak becomes yesterday's news or the beginning of a multi-year bull case.