The Race for Autonomous Trucking Stocks Heats Up: Three Companies Reshaping Commercial Transport

The commercial vehicle sector is experiencing a pivotal transformation. While passenger car autonomous driving captures headlines, the real disruption—and profit potential—lies in autonomous trucking. This shift stems from a fundamental economics: unmanned trucks eliminate fatigue-related risks, maintain consistent speed limits, and dramatically reduce maintenance through optimized driving patterns. For logistics companies managing middle-mile operations across vast distances, the value proposition is undeniable.

Yet the path forward remains treacherous. The sector has already witnessed a graveyard of startups that launched with fanfare in 2019-2020 but couldn’t sustain operations as development timelines stretched and funding evaporated. Regulatory uncertainties and technological complexities continue to pose formidable challenges. Despite these headwinds, a select group of autonomous trucking stocks presents compelling opportunities for risk-tolerant investors.

Aptiv: The Stealthy Last-Mile Player

Aptiv (NYSE: APTV) operates in the less glamorous but increasingly critical last-mile commercial vehicle segment. Rather than pursuing long-haul autonomous trucking—which faces steeper regulatory hurdles—the company focuses on urban and regional deliveries where self-driving technology can be deployed sooner.

The company’s business model centers on designing and manufacturing advanced connectors and autonomous driving systems for commercial applications. Through strategic acquisitions, Aptiv has continuously expanded its technological capabilities and market reach. This disciplined M&A strategy is yielding tangible results: both revenue and profitability metrics show consistent year-over-year growth.

Recent market dynamics have created an attractive entry point. Current EV demand headwinds have pressured APTV stock down approximately 34% over the past 12 months. Wall Street sees this as overcorrection: analyst consensus rates the stock as a Buy with a $94.96 price target—roughly 29% above recent levels. For investors with conviction on autonomous commercial vehicles, this represents a potential value opportunity.

Aeva: The Sensor Technology Wildcard

Aeva (NYSE: AEVA) addresses one of autonomous driving’s most critical vulnerabilities: reliable environmental sensing in all conditions. While LiDAR technology provides the foundation for autonomous perception, Aeva has engineered a proprietary 4D sensory platform that transcends mere obstacle detection.

The technology’s breakthrough lies in predictive capability: advanced algorithms don’t just map current surroundings but anticipate object trajectories through space and time. This predictive dimension could prove decisive in accident prevention and operational safety—paramount considerations for any autonomous trucking deployment at scale.

The company already has a marquee validation: Aeva’s sensors will equip Daimler Truck’s first commercial autonomous vehicles on public roads. For a micro-cap enterprise with a $198.70 million market capitalization and minimal current revenue, this partnership represents extraordinary validation.

However, investors should enter with eyes open. Aeva lacks current profitability and has experienced a brutal 95% decline from its 2020 IPO levels. Yet institutional ownership stands at 63%—suggesting sophisticated investors see deeper value. Recent price action shows the stock finding support around its 52-week lows twice in the past year, potentially signaling capitulation and opportunity for multi-year appreciation.

Daimler Truck: The First-Mover Advantage Play

Daimler Truck (OTCMKTS: DTRUY), the autonomous driving subsidiary of Mercedes-Benz, is pursuing an aggressive commercialization timeline that sets it apart from competitors. The company recently announced demonstration vehicles targeting fully autonomous middle-mile operations by 2027—a timeline significantly ahead of industry consensus expectations (most analysts project 2030 or later).

This ambitious roadmap is supported by strategic partnerships. Daimler is collaborating with Waymo, leveraging autonomous driving expertise, while simultaneously developing proprietary solutions through its Torc subsidiary. The first commercial deployment involves eCascadia electric trucks targeting Southwest U.S. routes—ideal testing grounds for autonomous technology refinement.

Adding to the growth narrative, Daimler Truck recently formed a joint venture with Volvo to develop specialized truck operating systems. This announcement catalyzed a significant market reaction, propelling DTRUY stock to nearly $26 per share in March 2024. Since that peak, the stock has retreated approximately 20%, reminding investors that autonomous vehicle stocks remain inherently volatile.

The company’s public trading history is brief—only since 2021—yet cumulative performance shows a modest 7% appreciation. This relatively contained upside despite a successful commercialization story suggests either conservative market sentiment or genuine undervaluation waiting to be discovered.

Navigating the Autonomous Trucking Opportunity

All three autonomous trucking stocks present different risk-reward profiles. Aptiv offers the most mature business model with growing profitability. Aeva provides asymmetric upside potential for believers in sensor technology but carries execution risk. Daimler Truck presents a first-mover narrative with realistic near-term milestones.

The autonomous trucking sector remains nascent, but the fundamental economics are compelling. As these companies navigate technological and regulatory pathways, patient investors willing to accept volatility may find substantial returns in this emerging space.