## When Nominal Bitcoin Price Is Deceiving: Analyzing Actual Value Through the Lens of Inflation

Galaxy Research's study revealed a nuanced picture of Bitcoin's success. Although the nominal price of the cryptocurrency reached $126,080 in October 2025, this figure provides a false impression of actual capital growth. Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy's research department, pointed out a fundamentally important detail: after adjusting for the (CPI), which tracks inflation in the USA, the maximum Bitcoin price was actually only $99,848 in 2020 dollar equivalents.

Therefore, despite all the news about record highs, the cryptocurrency has not crossed the psychological $100,000 mark in terms of real purchasing power. This distinction between nominal and real value has become especially relevant amid the macroeconomic shocks of recent years.

### How Inflation Changed Reality for Investors

The (CPI) index, which measures the most severe inflation wave in the US in recent decades, showed dramatic changes since 2020. The annual price increase in November 2025 was 2.7%, with a total accumulation of 25% over the period. This means the dollar has lost 20% of its purchasing power: what cost $1 in 2020### now costs $1.25.

The figures have a concrete implication: goods in the US now cost 1.25 times more than six years ago. For the average investor, this means that even if Bitcoin's price in dollars reaches record heights, the real capital growth may be much more modest.

Inflation peaked at over 9% in mid-2022, after COVID-19 triggered a massive expansion of the money supply. Despite a gradual decline, the indicator remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating prolonged economic tension.

( Weakening of the Dollar as a Catalyst for Bitcoin Demand

The US Dollar Index )DXY( showed a downward trend throughout 2025, falling 11% to 97.8. The three-year low )96.3### was reached in September, reflecting long-term weakening of the US currency on the global market. This decline accelerated after October 2022, when it became clear that inflationary crisis would have long-term consequences.

It is this dollar weakness that fuels what analysts call the "devaluation protection strategy." In practice, this means that market players are actively transferring assets into cryptocurrencies, viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against further deterioration of fiat currencies. Thorn emphasized that this phenomenon is becoming more pronounced amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

### Divergences in Market Behavior: Who Buys, Who Sells

Paradoxically, one indicator alone does not tell the whole story about the market. VanEck recently published an analysis showing that the current decline in Bitcoin prices should be viewed as a healthy market reset rather than a catastrophe. Structural liquidity is actually improving, as speculative leverage has been removed from the system.

The divergence is quite interesting: spot exchange products are experiencing significant outflows, yet corporate treasuries are simultaneously buying Bitcoin in large volumes. Long-term holders remain resilient, not rushing to sell. At the same time, some miners are capitulating, which is traditionally considered a counter-indicator—a signal that may precede price stabilization.

Network activity and miner participation have indeed decreased, but this phenomenon aligns with healthy market reassessment rather than its collapse. Such periods often end with a new growth phase when speculative elements are exhausted.

Investor Takeaways: Nominal Price Is Not Everything

Galaxy Research's study emphasizes a critically important truth: tracking nominal prices without adjusting for inflation is a path to self-deception. Bitcoin indeed demonstrates resilience as an asset with a limited supply, but its true value for a portfolio depends on how well it protects purchasing power in the long term.

The current macroeconomic situation, characterized by a weakening dollar and persistent inflation, leaves room for debate about cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional stores of value. While some analysts predict a potential drop to $65,000 in 2026 amid regulatory speculation, structural factors remain in favor of assets with limited issuance.