26 Cryptocurrency Market Forecast 2026: Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2027, DeFi enters the dividend era

The year 2025 has painted a picture of a chaotic market: Bitcoin, which was expected to surpass $150,000, only reached $126,080 in October, then dropped back to around $90,000 by year’s end. Nevertheless, analysts still believe that this year has laid the foundation for the next phase of the crypto ecosystem — a world where stablecoins replace traditional payment systems, tokenized assets hold a place in institutional portfolios, and enterprise blockchains move from experimentation to operational reality.

Bitcoin Outlook: From Volatility to Maturity

Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. This is not an overly optimistic forecast but reflects a long-term trend: Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional asset. Currently, Bitcoin is at $90.81K, so reaching this level would require a 175% increase over the next two years.

Between now and mid-2026, options markets indicate Bitcoin has an equal chance of hitting $70,000 or $130,000. This reflects short-term market uncertainty. However, long-term observations show Bitcoin is shifting from a developing market asset to a more traditional macro tool — evidenced by changes in volatility structure and option pricing methods.

Layer-1 and Layer-2: Differentiation and Specialization

Solana will see on-chain internet capital surge to $2 billion (from approximately $750 million currently). The shift from meme projects to real business platforms with revenue streams will shape Solana’s development. Data shows that Solana ($140.24/SOL) has become a leading platform for practical consumer applications.

At least one Layer-1 blockchain will directly integrate revenue-generating applications into its protocol. Public chains are reconsidering how they hold value. Hyperliquid’s success integrating revenue models into their perpetual exchange proves that yields can be transferred from the application layer to the protocol layer. This trend will continue as blockchains seek to stabilize cash flows for their native tokens.

The proposed Solana inflation reduction will not pass. Although SIMD-0411 was proposed in November 2025, consensus has not been reached. Instead, the community recognizes that focusing on inflation issues has diverted attention from higher-priority concerns.

Enterprise L1 chains will transition from testing to real payment operations. At least one Fortune 500 company or major cloud provider is expected to launch a branded enterprise blockchain by 2026, processing over $1 billion in real transactions and operating production bridges connected to public DeFi.

Application revenue-to-network fee ratio will double. As transactions, DeFi, and consumer apps continue to dominate fee sources, value is shifting from the infrastructure layer to the application layer — a phenomenon analysts call the “fat app theory,” surpassing the “fat protocol theory.”

Stablecoins: From Experimentation to Infrastructure

Stablecoin trading volume will surpass the US ACH system. With a CAGR of 30%-40% annually, stablecoins have overtaken major credit networks like Visa. When the GENIUS Act is finalized in early 2026, this growth rate will accelerate further. USDC ($1.00) and other options like USDe ($1.00) will continue challenging Tether’s market position.

Stablecoin collaborations with TradFi will accelerate consolidation. Despite a stablecoin boom in 2025, the market cannot support numerous options. Payment processors will select one or two widely accepted stablecoins. Nine major banks (including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Santander, BNP Paribas, Citibank, MUFG, TD Bank Group, and UBS) are exploring G7 stablecoin issuance. PayPal is partnering with Paxos to issue PYUSD ($1.00), combining global payment networks with a regulated issuer.

A major bank or broker-dealer will accept tokenized stocks as collateral. Tokenized stocks remain fringe so far, but as core traditional finance infrastructure providers accelerate blockchain adoption, we expect a large bank to start accepting them as equivalent assets to traditional securities.

Payment networks will connect with public blockchains. At least one of the top three global card networks will use stablecoins to settle over 10% of cross-border transaction volume by 2026, though most end users won’t notice the difference. Behind the scenes, net settlement payments will be made in tokenized dollars to reduce settlement times and counterparty risk.

DeFi: The Era of Dividends and Moderate Yields

DEXs will account for over 25% of spot trading volume by the end of 2026. Decentralized exchanges, which require no KYC and have more efficient fee structures, are attracting more users and market makers. Currently, DEXs handle about 15%-17% of volume.

DAO treasury assets managed via futarchy will exceed $500 million. Based on the success of prediction governance models, we expect DAOs to adopt futarchy for capital allocation. Currently, about $47 million in DAO assets are fully governed by futarchy.

Total crypto mortgage lending debt will surpass $90 billion. Growth from 2025 will continue as institutions increasingly rely on DeFi protocols. On-chain lending share will rise as institutional participation deepens.

Stablecoin interest rate volatility will remain moderate, with DeFi borrowing costs not exceeding 10%. As institutions participate in lending, deeper liquidity will reduce interest rate swings. Off-chain interest rate declines will be a key limit for on-chain rates even in bull markets.

Total market cap of private tokens will exceed $100 billion by the end of 2026. Private tokens gained significant attention in Q4 2025. ZCash ($399.41/ZEC) increased by about 800%, Railgun by approximately 204%, and Monero by 53%. As more funds are stored on-chain, users will start questioning their privacy.

Weekly trading volume of Polymarket will stabilize above $1.5 billion. Prediction markets are becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors, with weekly volumes nearing $1 billion. New capital-efficient layers will enhance liquidity, while AI-driven order flow will increase trading frequency.

TradFi: ETF Boom and Listing Acceleration

Over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and 50 other crypto ETFs will launch in the US. As the SEC approves common listing standards, the pace of altcoin ETF launches will accelerate. In 2025, more than 15 spot ETFs for Solana, XRP ($2.07), Hedera ($0.12), Dogecoin ($0.14), Litecoin ($76.79), and Chainlink ($13.10) were listed.

Net inflows into US crypto spot ETFs will exceed $50 billion. In 2025, these ETFs attracted $23 billion. As asset management firms (like FAS) remove restrictions and platforms like Vanguard participate, capital flows will accelerate.

A major asset management platform will include bitcoin in its standard model portfolio. Three of the four largest financial service firms (Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America) have lifted restrictions on recommending bitcoin. The next step is to include bitcoin in the model portfolio with a 1%-2% allocation.

Over 15 crypto companies will list or upgrade their listings in the US. In 2025, 10 have successfully done so. Potential candidates include CoinShares, BitGo, Chainalysis, and FalconX.

More than five digital asset custody firms (DATs) will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down. Although Q2 2025 saw strong formation of DATs, since October, their market net asset value ratio (mNAV) has begun to compress. To succeed in 2026, DATs need solid capital structures, innovative liquidity management, and strong partnerships. Many initial DATs lack comprehensive strategic plans, risking forced asset sales or closures.

Policy: Shifts in Political Views and Increased Oversight

Some politicians will focus on financial exclusion issues and gradually accept cryptocurrencies as a solution. Although unlikely, signs of changing attitudes are emerging. As regulators tighten oversight of monetary transactions, especially involving immigrants, some political factions may become more sympathetic to the benefits of permissionless financial networks.

The US will launch a federal investigation into insider trading or market manipulation related to prediction markets. As regulators loosen restrictions on on-chain prediction markets, trading volume will surge. Meanwhile, since traders can participate anonymously without identity verification, insiders may be tempted to exploit privileged information more easily.

AI: Automated On-Chain Payments

Payments governed by standard x402 will account for 30% of daily transaction volume on Base and 5% on Solana. As AI agents become smarter and stablecoins continue to grow in popularity, x402 and other agent payment standards will drive on-chain activity. Base and Solana will lead in this field.

Looking Back at 2025: Lessons from Past Predictions

By the end of 2024, market optimism was pervasive. Bitcoin was expected to surpass $150,000 in early 2025 — but only reached $126,080 in October before falling to $90,000 by year-end. However, some of our predictions were entirely accurate.

Correct predictions:

• DeFi truly entered the “dividend era,” with applications distributing over $1 billion in nominal value via buybacks and revenue sharing. Hyperliquid led with nearly $250 million in returns.
• On-chain governance revived, with futarchy widely tested, and 9 DAOs fully adopting this model.
• At least one large asset management firm recommended a 2% or higher allocation to bitcoin. Morgan Stanley issued a report recommending up to 4%.
• Over 10 stablecoins supported by TradFi partners launched, with the actual number reaching 14.

Incorrect predictions:

• Bitcoin did not surpass $150,000 but only hit $126,080.
• AUM of spot bitcoin ETFs only reached $141 billion, not $250 billion.
• Ethereum staking rate only hit 29.7%, not 50%.
• Total stablecoin market cap increased by 50%, not doubled.

While 2025 brought meme disappointments and market corrections, the major trends we identified continue to develop — from institutional acceptance, to protocol maturity, to real-world DeFi adoption. 2026 will be the year to test these trends.