## Can Bitcoin Break Through in 2026? Technical Signals and Fundamentals Offer Two Answers

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $90.83K, but market opinions on its future trajectory vary. Recent technical patterns are becoming the focal point of investor debates—this pattern's historical repetition rate may determine this year's ups and downs.

### Can historical patterns repeat?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently fallen into oversold territory (below 30), a signal that has occurred five times over the past three years. The key point is that after each occurrence of such a pattern, Bitcoin experienced a subsequent rally.

According to analysis from the head of global macro investment research, if this historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin could surge to a target of $170,000 within just three months. The analyst emphasizes that as long as the four-year cycle remains valid, this curve should stay relevant.

However, not all professionals share the same confidence. Market analysts believe that while these historical patterns provide useful market psychology references, they should be viewed more as "conditional bullish signals" rather than certain outcomes. An RSI below 30 typically indicates market panic and leverage liquidations, which are often followed by stabilization and rebounds, but this does not guarantee the same upward trajectory will recur.

"Forecasting a rise to $170,000 mainly depends on macro liquidity, monetary policy, and overall risk appetite," the analyst notes. Short-term dynamics may remain volatile and require further validation.

### Overlay of Historical Cycles and Fundamental Support

Beyond technical patterns, broader historical laws also offer optimistic reasons. Over the past decade, every year of decline for Bitcoin has been followed by a year of growth. The current annual increase in 2025 is only about -5%, which historically often sets the stage for positive performance in 2026.

This reflects Bitcoin's cyclical mean reversion characteristic rather than automatic accelerated growth. However, these factors do provide constructive support for medium- and long-term prospects, even though short-term volatility should still be watched.

Market prediction platforms show that investors estimate a 61% probability that Bitcoin will break through this price level before reaching $100,000. This data has remained relatively stable over the past week, despite multiple attempts by Bitcoin to surpass the $90,000 threshold.

### Institutional Funds: The True Game Changer

The most specific bullish scenario comes from institutional adoption trajectories. Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are described as "extremely bullish"—large financial institutions worth trillions of dollars now have access to this market.

This suggests 2026 could become a record year for net capital inflows. As institutional participation deepens, Bitcoin may gradually operate independently, with reduced correlation to the stock market. As tokenization and institutional recognition become key drivers of prices, the market is showing mature characteristics—price movements driven by its own fundamentals rather than external assets.

### Two Sources of Pressure Are Diminishing

Recent market weakness is attributed to two temporary catalysts. Investors are selling off due to expectations of the four-year cycle, followed by the aftershocks of leverage liquidations in October. Bitwise's chief investment officer predicts that once these factors dissipate, sustained growth will commence.

The macroeconomic environment itself could serve as a catalyst. Whether due to a strong economy or stimulus-induced weakness, both scenarios could be favorable for cryptocurrencies. This "win or win" situation provides ample upward space for the market.

From technical patterns to institutional inflows and historical cycles, Bitcoin in 2026 appears to be building a foundation. Although short-term volatility is inevitable, the support structure is gradually taking shape.