Massive Token Release Week Incoming: How Will the $300 Million Supply Pressure Shake the Market?

During the week of mid-December, the crypto market is set to experience an intense wave of token unlocks. According to blockchain data agencies, the total amount of tokens pending unlock within just one week will exceed $309 million, including several large releases of over $5 million in a single transaction. These supply shocks are expected to redefine market participants’ risk assessments of related projects.

Who is releasing the largest volume? ZK and ZRO lead

In the upcoming wave of unlocks, the most attention is on the concentrated releases of two major projects.

ZK (zkSync) faces a concentrated release of 173.08 million tokens, currently valued at about $0.03 each, resulting in a market impact of approximately $5.56 million, accounting for 3.26% of its circulating supply. At the same time, ZRO (LayerZero) has an even more staggering unlock—$37.53 million worth of tokens will enter the market, representing 6.79% of its circulating supply, with the current price at $1.47.

During this cycle, Arbitrum (ARB) will also release 96 million tokens, worth about $19.98 million, further increasing market supply pressure. Following that, there will be concentrated outflows from projects like SEI ($0.12), LISTA ($0.16), and Space ID (ID, $0.07), releasing tokens valued at $9.46 million, $5.68 million, and $5.08 million respectively.

Experts point out that concentrated releases often bring short-term price pressure—large amounts of long-locked tokens suddenly entering the market tend to lead to sell-offs, with smaller, less liquid tokens being the most vulnerable.

The shadow of continued outflows: RAIN, SOL, and other whales

In addition to concentrated releases, tokens from several leading projects will also enter ongoing unlock periods.

RAIN plans to release a massive 9.43 billion tokens during this period, valued at $75.04 million, accounting for 2.78% of its circulating supply. In comparison, Solana (SOL) currently trades at $140.15, with an unlock of 486,990 tokens, which, due to its large market cap, presents relatively manageable pressure.

However, the situations of TRUMP ($5.42) and Worldcoin (WLD, $0.57) warrant caution—they will release tokens worth $26.8 million and $21.55 million respectively. Additionally, DOGE ($0.1296), ASTER ($0.71), Avalanche (AVAX, $13.65), and Bittensor (TAO, $285.80) will also unlock in phases, with amounts ranging from $7 million to $13 million. Notably, DOGE’s 94.9 million tokens to be unlocked could trigger short-term volatility in the memecoin sector.

How should investors respond?

This supply shock during the cycle will be a key variable for the short-term market. Larger, more liquid coins may absorb the impact smoothly, but small and mid-cap tokens face the risk of price corrections. On-chain data indicates that transparency in supply management and the market’s absorption capacity will directly influence project performance—whether there is enough buy support or if sell pressure will dominate.

For traders, this is a critical period to test risk management. During intense supply releases, volatility will inevitably increase; cautious entry and rational stop-loss strategies are equally important.