Can Ether Break Free? ETF Revival Signals Potential Triple-Digit Surge Ahead

Ethereum’s $3,100 Threshold Tests Buyer Conviction

Ether has been hovering around the $3,200 mark this week after running into serious selling pressure between $3,650 and $3,350. The pullback coincided with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), establishing a critical overhead barrier at precisely the moment spot ETFs showed their first meaningful recovery signals in weeks.

The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story

Institutional money is slowly creeping back in. Spot ETH ETF assets have climbed from $16.8 billion to $21.5 billion since late November—a 28% jump that suggests improving appetite into year-end. Yet here’s the catch: we’re still nowhere near the $32 billion peak from early October, meaning institutional confidence hasn’t fully returned.

On-chain data paints a similar picture. Net taker volume improved from October’s brutal –$500 million extreme to –$138 million recently. That’s a meaningful structural shift. During September-October’s bloodbath, aggressive sellers were in complete control, but momentum is gradually shifting as buyer interest trickles back. The pattern mirrors early 2025, just before Ethereum’s 3x rally that pushed it to fresh all-time highs.

Where Traders Are Actually Looking

On the four-hour chart, Ether is now testing the $3,100–$3,180 demand zone. This is where things get interesting. If bulls can hold this block and maintain the ascending channel, we’re looking at a rebound toward the daily 200-day EMA. A decisive push above $3,450 would kill the rejection thesis entirely and clear the way toward $3,900 resistance.

The bearish scenario isn’t pretty either. Break below the ascending channel support and you’re staring down a probable retest of $3,000 support. Derivatives data suggests the market isn’t yet fully committed either way. Open interest has cooled slightly post-rejection, funding rates are mildly positive but unremarkable, and the bid/ask ratio sits near neutral—spot buyers aren’t aggressively bidding yet.

What Actually Matters Right Now

Ether sits at $3.12K currently. The next move depends entirely on whether bulls can defend that $3,100–$3,180 zone long enough for ETF demand recovery to actually materialize into sustained buying pressure. If taker flows continue improving and institutional inflows hold, a triple-digit rally becomes a legitimate scenario in the coming weeks. If the channel breaks, expect a retest of that $3,000 level.

The clock’s ticking—watch the $3,450 level. That’s your invalidation point for the whole bullish narrative.