This week, the crypto market faces a dense token unlock cycle. According to Token Unlocks data, major tokens such as ONDO and TRUMP will release a total of over 2.8 billion tokens this week, with a market cap surpassing $1 billion. Among them, ONDO unlocks 1.71 billion tokens in a single day (equivalent to 17.1% of its circulating supply), TRUMP releases 50 million tokens (11.95%), and together their value approaches the billion-dollar scale.

Historically, such large-scale unlocks often lead to significant volatility. Currently, ONDO's support level is around $2.7, and with heavy selling pressure, breaking through this level is quite possible. Data shows that within 30 days after token unlocks, the average decline is usually around 23%. As a popular meme coin, TRUMP's 11.95% unlock ratio is enough to trigger retail investors' panic, potentially leading to a chain of declines. Meanwhile, tokens with good liquidity like ARB and STRK are also unlocking during the same period, creating multiple shockwaves that can cause temporary liquidity shortages in the market.

To navigate this cycle, several key points should be considered: First, the first three days after unlock often see a misleading bullish trend; initial gains are often traps, so caution is advised. Second, the 24 hours following large unlocks are the most intense selling windows; setting a reasonable stop-loss of 3%-5% can effectively control risk. Finally, monitoring the movements of the top ten holder addresses is important; if signs of concentrated transfers are observed, positions should be adjusted promptly.

The market is essentially a game of probabilities—early positioning often yields the greatest benefits, while following the trend after unlocks is the main source of losses for most people. This cycle tests participants' risk awareness and discipline.