#比特币趋势与价格分析 After reviewing the historical data of $23.7 billion in annual deliveries, I have to tell the truth: the strange sideways movement before options settlement is not calm at all, but rather market makers hedging gamma to "lock" the market.

Looking back at the settlement rhythm over the past few years, the pattern is eerily clear—during suppression periods, prices are pinned within a specific range. Once settlement is complete, that invisible "cage" disappears immediately, and volatility explodes. After the annual settlement on December 27 last year, BTC directly broke through $80,000; after the quarterly settlement in March this year, the bull market accelerated toward $70,000; even after the September settlement, there was a pattern of suppression followed by release, forming a rebound.

Today’s $23.7 billion annual large settlement has a maximum pain point around $96,000. Before settlement, the market was range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000—familiar script again. This is not a coincidence but the underlying logic of the options market. During holidays with thin liquidity, hedging forces become stronger, making suppression more effective.

But this is where the opportunity lies. Historical data shows that volatility often amplifies after settlement, usually accompanied by a one-sided trend. Some analysts believe it could approach $100,000, but my advice is: don’t be fooled by this number. The key is to understand the true market trend after settlement is released, rather than chasing high and betting on a psychological price.

After these years of lessons, I’ve learned that during the suppression before settlement, the first two days after settlement are most prone to false breakouts. Patience is needed until volatility truly stabilizes—that’s the prudent time to enter. Those rushing in to chase $90,000 are often the next batch to get caught off guard.