2026-01-12 08:29:49

In this downward cycle, big funds are operating behind the scenes with a well-organized approach. They use a combination of weak rebounds and narrow-range oscillations, gradually eroding retail investors' patience while secretly accumulating positions.

On-chain data has sent signals. Recent large transfers over the past two days are concentrated in the price range of 0.69–0.72, a volume that clearly isn't achievable by retail investors—more like whales gradually accumulating at the bottom. Exchange deposit and withdrawal data is also interesting: deposits are increasing, withdrawals are decreasing, indicating that chips are gathering at exchanges, which usually suggests that there may be coordinated actions in the futures market later.

Looking at the order book, it appears quite intimidating. The 0.74–0.76 range is filled with sell orders, creating significant pressure. But how about actual transactions? Orders are quickly withdrawn, and small orders are gradually eaten up—this is a standard fake resistance trap. The goal is clear: to create the illusion of difficulty in rising, scare off those wanting to go long, and even induce them to open short positions in the opposite direction.

Market sentiment is currently very negative. Retail investor sentiment is panic-stricken, with very few bullish traders; everyone is waiting for lower prices. But think about it—this unanimous bearish outlook actually provides the perfect opportunity for the main players to operate in the opposite direction. As soon as the price breaks above the upper boundary of the range, a collective stop-loss from short positions could trigger a rapid surge, potentially reversing the trend instantly.

Overall, this isn't just a simple downward decline. It resembles a period of consolidation after full preparation, which could break the situation at any moment.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 7h ago

From the perspective of on-chain deposit and withdrawal data, there are indeed signs that major players are positioning themselves in this wave. However, rather than guessing the K-line, it's better to pay attention to the changes in the difficulty adjustment cycle. --- The tactic of false suppression is a common cliché, but those who truly make money are never relying on guessing trends; instead, they focus on improving their position cost optimization capabilities. --- When more people are waiting for lower prices, it just indicates that this is a good opportunity for accumulation. My strategy is simple: focus on the hash rate return ratio. During downturns, the value of hash rate is relatively better, and in the long run, that's sufficient. --- The explanation is quite detailed, but honestly, I've seen these chart tricks too many times. The real test is whether the investment return cycle can outpace inflation. --- Recently, a lot of new hash power has entered the mining pools, which might indirectly verify whether the "bottom accumulation" you mentioned is really happening. --- The market does look quite strange, but rather than obsessing over a 0.02 fluctuation, it's better to calculate your actual position cost and return cycle. That's the more stable approach. --- The logic of "increased deposits, decreased withdrawals" is good, but looking at historical data, how long is the typical counter-operation cycle after such signals appear? Do you have specific data?

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GasFeeLover

· 16h ago

Fake pump-and-dump schemes are really old tricks; I get fooled every time, ugh ugh ugh

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DegenWhisperer

· 16h ago

Fake market suppression tricks have been the same for so many years and still work. Retail investors really need to learn how to see through these tricks.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 16h ago

How many times has this fake pump-and-dump scheme been played, and retail investors still keep falling for it again and again. Just wait, the reverse surge is coming soon.

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DegenWhisperer

· 16h ago

Fake pressure suppression, this routine is really annoying, always acting out like this. Wait, is the wave at 0.69 really absorbing the chips? Feels like armchair generals afterwards. When the main force is pushing up, retail investors are still bottom-fishing, hilarious. I bet 5 bucks it won't break 0.76. Short position stop-loss rally? Just listen, don't really think the main force is a god. This kind of analysis always says there will be a reversal, how many times has it actually reversed? If chips are gathering at the exchange, does that mean there will definitely be a big move? I don't think so. The story of absorbing chips at the bottom has been told for over a year, if it was really going to take off, it would have already. Fake pressure suppression destroys retail investors' confidence, a classic script. No matter how I analyze it, I’ve already been trapped anyway.

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