Whales are taking over Bitcoin – is the BTC bottom near despite miner turbulence?

When weak hands capitulate, strong hands take control

The current Bitcoin market dynamics clearly show a structural capital rotation. Despite visible pressure on miners and general FUD in the ecosystem, on-chain data reveal something quite different from widespread pessimism. Recent studies indicate that nearly 50% of BTC’s realized capitalization comes from new whale buyers. This indicator is key to understanding why Bitcoin remains above $85,000 despite the pressure.

Realized capitalization reflects the “actual price” at which coins last changed hands on-chain. The fact that half of this value goes to whales means that a significant portion of the available supply is moving into the hands of much stronger holders. This is not a coincidence – it’s a conscious capital allocation during market panic.

Mining crisis vs. market resilience – where is the truth?

On the surface, the picture looks pessimistic. In just the last two days, miners’ reserves dropped by 900 BTC, corresponding to a selling pressure of $76 million. Considering the average production cost, it’s clear that a large part of the mining industry is operating at a loss.

On-chain metrics confirm this tension. STH NUPL (sentiment metric of small holders) remains at levels suggesting capitulation. In previous market cycles, similar signals preceded local lows and rebounds. However, this time the situation differs from Q2 – back then, the indicators rebounded quickly, now they remain deeply red.

Japanese shock shifts the global market dynamics

The macroeconomic context explains a lot. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to the highest level in 30 years, triggering a risk-off effect in the markets. The result? Spot Bitcoin demand is lacking, and US investors remain significantly more passive than usual.

Nevertheless, this turbulence has created an excellent environment for redistribution. Weak hands are being pushed out of the market as soon as an opportunity arises. Meanwhile, whales possess deep capital and strategic patience – they are waiting for exactly these moments.

Horizon breakthrough – is “buy the dip” returning?

Despite visible fear and on-chain capitulation signals, BTC shows remarkable resilience. For four consecutive weeks, Bitcoin closed above the $85,000 zone, signaling strength to more experienced market participants.

This combination – heavy on-chain sentiment + accumulation by whales + price resilience – traditionally preceded significant rebounds. If the current dynamics persist, the turning point could be in the coming weeks.

Summary

• On-chain metrics indicate capitulation moods, but market structure suggests a capital rotation from weak to strong holders
• Whale accumulation above $85,000 shows large capital entering during weakness
• Mining difficulty metrics, despite prices above 85K, are classic signs of a market preparing for a rebound
• If this pattern confirms, Bitcoin’s bottom may not be far away