XRP's Intraday Recovery Challenged as Technical Breakdown Signals Further Downside Risks

Key takeaways:

• Broadening formation on weekly charts points to a potential $0.88 floor, representing 57% downside from current levels
• Over 41.5% of XRP holders are now in loss territory, intensifying capitulation signals
• Realized losses have climbed to seven-month peaks, historically preceding sharp corrections

XRP staged a brief recovery attempt on Friday but remains in precarious technical territory. Trading at $2.06 after a 1.43% pullback over the past day, the altcoin faces mounting headwinds that could undermine any near-term bounce. The critical question for traders isn’t whether recovery is possible—it’s whether the market has enough conviction to sustain one.

Breaking Below $1.80 Confirms Deeper Correction

XRP’s weekly structure reveals a broadening formation pattern, a technical setup typically associated with heightened volatility and eventual sharp moves. The pattern will trigger once price decisively breaks the lower support boundary around $1.80. If confirmed, the measured target extends down to $0.88—a brutal 57% decline from where the coin currently trades.

Before reaching that floor, traders should monitor two psychological support zones. The 100-week simple moving average sits at $1.60, while the 200-week SMA rests at $1.05. Both levels historically attract demand but offer no guarantee of holding in the face of persistent selling.

The weekly RSI tells a sobering story about momentum deterioration. It has compressed to 39—a sharp decline from December’s euphoric 91 reading. This sustained momentum contraction signals that each successive wave lower carries more force than the previous one.

Sentiment Collapse Accelerates the Downside Risk

More revealing than price action alone is on-chain sentiment. XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has transitioned from euphoria directly into anxiety territory, skipping past the denial phase entirely. This compressed timeline suggests investors are capitulating faster than in previous cycles.

The human cost of the decline is visible in blockchain data. With 41.5% of XRP holders underwater, the path of least resistance leads to forced selling and tax-loss harvesting. Glassnode’s metrics confirm this pessimism: daily realized losses have spiked to approximately $75 million per day—the highest level since April 2024.

Historical precedent matters here. Similar configurations in 2018 and 2021 preceded 60-70% corrections over subsequent weeks, suggesting the current setup may not be a one-time event but the beginning of a longer drawdown.

The Setup Mirrors Past Capitulation Phases

XRP’s intraday low touched $1.81—levels not seen since April—before any recovery attempt could gain traction. The 50% slide from its mid-year peak of $3.65 has wiped out euphoric positioning from that period entirely.

The absence of on-chain accumulation from institutional players, combined with sustained profit-taking from large holders, creates an environment where even temporary recoveries face rejection. Until buying pressure emerges at key support levels, the recovery from intraday lows remains vulnerable to rapid reversals.

The risk reward for bulls is currently unfavorable—the reward potential of a bounce to $2.50 is offset by the risk of a break below $1.80 that would unleash another 40-50% decline toward the $0.88 target.