Cryptocurrency correlation with risky assets creates a new momentum for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Recent movements in the financial markets demonstrate an increased correlation between cryptocurrencies and global risk assets. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has been hovering around the $91.55K (growth of 0.98% over 24 hours), while Ethereum trades near the $3.14K (+1.51% per day). This synchronization with traditional capital markets is reflected in global macroeconomic decisions, including recent US sanctions that caused oil prices to fall and simultaneously pushed stocks higher.

When politics becomes a market catalyst

Geopolitical tensions have generated unexpected consequences for digital assets. Recent US actions regarding Venezuela have sparked speculation about potential Venezuelan Bitcoin reserves, which could make the country one of the largest sovereign owners of crypto. Although this assumption is unverified, it has attracted traders’ attention as a possible factor capable of accelerating an upward move. Meanwhile, deflationary pressure from falling energy prices creates a favorable environment for reallocating capital in favor of digital assets.

Market structure signals a shift in sentiment

Analysis of options market positions reveals a noticeable transformation in participant behavior. The tendency toward protective strategies (put options) has significantly decreased across all time horizons, reflecting growing confidence in an upward trend. Notably, over the past week, more than 3,000 call options with an expiration date of January 30, 2026, and a strike price of $100,000 have been purchased — signaling gambling-like expectations for the development of events.

Gamma effect and downside risks

A surge in demand for long positions through straddles and other combined schemes indicates active short covering amid Bitcoin’s growth. If the spot prices continue to rise, a gamma effect acceleration may occur. However, caution should be exercised: during the US trading session, impulsive pullbacks are often observed, which could change this dynamic.

Context for the new year

The correlation of cryptocurrencies with a broader spectrum of risk assets has strengthened the bullish narrative for 2026. The end of tax-driven sell-offs in late December and expectations of new crypto regulatory initiatives create prerequisites for a longer-term upward trend. At the same time, these factors are already somewhat reflected in current prices, so sudden geopolitical decisions remain the most influential catalyst in the near term.