XRP at a crossroads: one breach — and the market awaits lower price levels

The current situation with XRP looks like balancing on a knife’s edge. At the time of analysis, the price is $2.06 with a 24-hour decline of 1.86%, but the real tension is concentrated near the critical decision-making level — the median line of Bollinger Bands on the monthly timeframe around $1.8214. Fluctuations of just a few percent can break the trend in either direction.

The median line as a boundary line

For many traders, this middle Bollinger Band line is not just a technical level but a true dividing line between two scenarios. If the price stays above it, what is happening will remain a normal correction within a larger bullish trend. However, if XRP breaks this barrier downward, the market architecture will change significantly. Below this line, support is practically absent, which means potential for a sharp acceleration of the decline.

Buyers are trying to hold this zone, but demand is not very strong. If the middle band is broken and the price closes significantly lower, the foundation that supported previous stability will simply collapse.

The pressure from October 10: the last strong demand signal

One detail of the chart deserves special attention. The long wick formed around October 10 near $1.2543 indicates the last powerful attempt by buyers to hold the price after intense selling. This wick is the last visible line of defense on the monthly timeframe, which market participants will watch closely.

If XRP falls below $1.82, then this lower end of that wick will become the next critical zone for testing real demand. If support is not found there either, things could develop very quickly in a negative direction.

The lower boundary as a warning of an extremum

The lower Bollinger Band has already moved far away — to the level of $0.0395. Such extreme expansion indicates that market volatility has reached critical limits. In case of support level breakdowns, theoretically, the decline could become very large, although this does not mean the price will immediately drop there.

XRP’s dilemma: requalification or collapse?

Today, XRP is at a clear crossroads. The first scenario: the median line holds, the sell-off ends, and the market stabilizes. The second scenario: a breakdown triggers a cascade decline with an unknown bottom. The market structure is becoming more fragile, and every 5-percent fluctuation can now trigger a radical revaluation of the asset.

The key to understanding the next steps lies in the price behavior near $1.8214 — that is where the risk sharply increases or disappears.