Altcoin Season Index stalls at 18 points: market reality and investor dilemma

The market is telling a clear story to investors, but many still haven’t understood it. The Altcoin Season Index being stuck at 18 is not just normal fluctuation; it is a strong market signal that deeply reflects the current flow of capital within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. To understand this phenomenon, you need to first grasp the underlying logic of the market.

Market Mechanism Behind the Index

What is the Altcoin Season Index? Simply put, it measures the performance of 100 major altcoins (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days. When 75% of these coins outperform BTC, the official announcement of “altcoin season” begins. The closer the index is to 100, the stronger the altcoin profit effect; the lower (like the current 18), the more dominant Bitcoin is over the entire market.

Why is this index important? Because it directly reflects the true choices of market participants. When funds flow into altcoins, this number rises rapidly; when all eyes focus on BTC, the number drops to single digits.

Why Are Altcoins Still Being Ignored

Staying at 18 is not an accident but a necessity. Currently, three forces are suppressing the performance of altcoins:

Institutional Capital Tilt: The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has attracted massive traditional funds. These institutional investors have limited risk tolerance, and BTC, as the “safest” crypto asset, naturally becomes the first choice.

Declining Risk Appetite: Macroeconomic uncertainties make investors more conservative. In comparison, the volatility and risk profile of altcoins make them less attractive at this stage.

Liquidity Polarization: Bitcoin has absorbed most trading liquidity, reducing counterparties for altcoin trading pairs, which in turn dampens market enthusiasm.

These three forces work together to keep the Altcoin Season Index pinned at a low level.

Investment Opportunities in Ignored Altcoins

But there are opportunities hidden here. When the index is at a low, two clear opportunities emerge:

Accumulation Phase for Long-term Holders: Low prices mean that projects with solid fundamentals are available at discounted rates. If you believe in the development prospects of a certain altcoin, now is the time to build positions with low risk.

Waiting for Reversal Signals: The key is to set alert points. When the Altcoin Season Index breaks above 25 or continues to break through 50, it indicates that capital is starting to reallocate. When this signal appears, you should reassess your altcoin holdings.

For short-term traders, the current environment is unfavorable; for long-term investors, it’s a good time to be greedy when others are fearful.

When Will Bitcoin Domination End

History offers some clues. The start of altcoin season is usually triggered by several catalysts:

Natural slowdown in Bitcoin growth: As BTC’s gains gradually plateau, investors begin to look for other opportunities.

Key ecosystem events: Major upgrades to Ethereum, revival of DeFi activity, or breakthroughs in certain altcoins can serve as turning points.

Improvement in regulatory environment: Positive regulatory signals for certain altcoin sectors (like a specific blockchain or DeFi protocol) often rekindle market enthusiasm.

The real signal occurs when Bitcoin’s momentum and altcoin’s independent energy appear simultaneously.

Practical Response Guide

For Bitcoin investors: When the Altcoin Season Index is below 50, increasing your BTC holdings is a trend-following strategy.

For altcoin enthusiasts: Create a high-quality watchlist of altcoins, and respond quickly when the index starts rising. Also, gradually build positions in your most promising projects.

For hybrid investors: Keep your core Bitcoin holdings stable, and allocate 10-20% of your funds for low-positioning in altcoins. This way, you won’t miss out on BTC’s trend while preparing for the arrival of altcoin season.

Common Questions About the Altcoin Season Index

What does an index of 18 mean? It indicates that only a small proportion of these 100 altcoins have outperformed BTC. The market is in pure Bitcoin season.

How often is it updated? Usually daily, providing near real-time market signals.

Is 75 the threshold for altcoin season? Yes. The official definition is that when 75% of altcoins outperform BTC, it officially confirms the start of altcoin season.

Does meme coin like Dogecoin count? Absolutely. As long as it’s in the top 100 by market cap, regardless of token type (excluding stablecoins), it is included in the calculation.

Summary: Waiting and Preparing in Parallel

An index of 18 indeed tells a story about Bitcoin’s dominance. But this story won’t last forever. More importantly, you can use this low period to do two things: deeply research the altcoins you’re interested in, and strengthen your core Bitcoin positions. When the index finally starts to rise, well-prepared investors will reap the opportunities.