Lighter: When the Market Undervalues the Next Generation of Perp Dex

What Is the True Value of Lighter?

In the current landscape of decentralized derivatives, a recurring question among institutional players and sophisticated traders concerns the proper valuation of Lighter. The project emerges as the most credible competitor to capture the capital flow that Hyperliquid can no longer fully attract. But the numbers tell an even more interesting story.

According to current OTC quotes, Lighter’s FDV is around $3.3 billion. With an estimated 30% airdrop, the initial circulating market capitalization could be approximately $750 million. At the same time, Hyperliquid boasts a circulating market cap of $8.2 billion.

Here emerges the first crucial element: the price/sales ratio. If we annualize Lighter’s last month’s revenue—estimated at about $250 million on an annual basis—the P/S multiple is 2.5x. An extraordinarily low figure compared to Hyperliquid’s 7.6x. This differential reflects not higher risk but simply a systematic undervaluation.

Aster, the closest competitor, presents an even more revealing profile: while maintaining a comparable TVL to Lighter and an open interest about $1 billion higher, its FDV reaches $7 billion with a circulating market cap of $2 billion. Translated: Aster is valued at three times Lighter’s, despite Lighter showing no obvious disadvantage in operational fundamentals.

The Robinhood Factor: A Hidden Accelerator

A often-overlooked element by analysts concerns the direct link between the two Vlads: Vlad Tenev of Robinhood and Vlad, founder of Lighter. The former was an intern at Addepar where he met the latter, laying the groundwork for a partnership that goes well beyond a simple financial partnership.

Robinhood is not just an investor in Lighter—it’s a strategic partner with complementary visions. Both projects share the same “payment for order flow” model (PFOF). As Robinhood accumulates a significant stake in Lighter through tokens and equity, the likelihood of redirecting a substantial portion of its traffic to the platform becomes not only plausible but logically inevitable.

Robinhood’s vision aims to tokenize every asset and bring it on-chain. Lighter, with its architecture centered on composability and Ethereum L1 integration, represents the ideal vehicle for this expansion. The next chapter of their relationship could include using Lighter on its own blockchain, transforming the current valuation into just a snapshot of a transitional moment.

Privacy as a Competitive Advantage

In the growing debate over Hyperliquid’s superiority, a fundamental aspect is systematically ignored: the cost of total transparency. On Hyperliquid, leaderboards and on-chain data expose every relevant position, entry point, and liquidation level to the public.

For smart money and large funds, this is not a feature but a huge vulnerability. Predatory traders routinely use available liquidation data to hunt whales and drain significant capital. It is an empirically established strategy, practiced daily by hundreds of operators.

Lighter positions itself as a direct antidote to this vulnerability, implementing an architecture that obfuscates order flows and hides position data. The result is an on-chain dark pool—not a standard DEX. For large capital managers, anonymity is not a convenience but an existential necessity. As DeFi matures, platforms that protect alpha will inevitably attract most institutional capital flows.

The VC Flows Phenomenon and the “Missed HYPE” Effect

In recent months, a recurring conversation among venture capitalists has emerged: almost all (except Paradigm) have missed Hyperliquid. This event has triggered a competitive, non-rational but predictable rush toward the next big winner in the sector.

Major holders of Hyperliquid have not remained inactive. Many have become both large holders and active users of Lighter. Their strategy is simple: Hold. If these whales do not intend to sell their tokens, and continue to accumulate (since Lighter has the same momentum that characterized HYPE in its early days), selling pressure diminishes drastically while demand accelerates.

Even major players like Paradigm—with an exposure of $700 million on HYPE—must necessarily consider allocating to the competitor that could potentially displace it. If Lighter executes a 2x, 3x, or even 10x multiple and Paradigm remains unhedged, it would be an unacceptable management oversight. A defensive allocation of $50 million is not irrational in this context.

The $68 million funding round set the initial valuation at $1.5 billion (with FDV corresponding). However, the participation cap per LP was set at only $2 million, with 1-year lock-up terms and 3-year vesting. This means most participants will continue to perceive the token as a tradable liquid asset, not merely an illiquid investment.

Additionally, the round was oversubscribed by 6 times, making participation possible only through close relationships with the team. For retail investors who watched Hyperliquid’s rally as spectators, Lighter represents a rare second opportunity.

RWA: The Often-Ignored Accelerating Factor

Contracts on real assets (RWA) are not new in the sector, but Lighter has demonstrated a decisive operational advantage. Daily RWA volumes on Lighter reach $517 million, with an open interest of $271 million. This represents an impressive recovery compared to Hyperliquid, and in some segments, even a direct surpass.

The fundamental structural difference: Lighter’s RWA services are not managed by third-party providers within the ecosystem but internally by the team. This results in a significantly faster cycle for coordinating and listing new assets. While Hyperliquid remains primarily focused on crypto indices (80% of volume), Lighter diversifies into FX contracts and other derivatives, expanding the potential user base.

The final competition will converge on a pure metric: liquidity and depth of the order book. In this area, Lighter has demonstrated operational capacity that is comparable or superior.

The Buyback: The Only Sustainable Mechanism

In the long term, the price of a governance token remains supported solely by passive spot purchases. Bitcoin has MicroStrategy’s Saylor, Ethereum has analysts like Tom Lee, but for altcoins, the market only recognizes buybacks funded by operational revenues.

Hyperliquid has understood this fundamental logic. Lighter, conceived as an improved replica of Hyperliquid, adopts the same principle. The founder has publicly stated that the project will implement systematic buybacks. While a 97% buyback of the supply is not expected, an allocation of 30-50% remains reasonable and potentially higher.

From the $68 million raised (destined mainly for the insurance fund), a portion has already been allocated for buyback at TGE. This mirrors Hyperliquid’s initial $75 million in spot purchases. As long as passive buys remain in the double digits, the attractiveness remains evident.

The Premium Narrative in the First Two Weeks

A key factor in pre-pricing, especially in the first fourteen days post-TGE, is the pure narrative factor. During this period, the market is populated by price-insensitive buyers, triggering a dynamic of overhype and temporary overvaluation. This phenomenon is intrinsic to token launches, not a system bug.

“Price is human emotion crystallized in the short term”—this statement captures the essence of this phase. If Lighter deserves a high valuation based on any fundamental metrics, it further deserves an even higher valuation during the narrative liftoff phase.

The First True Rival Emerges

The derivatives market is continuously expanding. Although Twitter hosts an observing fanbase of Hyperliquid, the market has enough size to host multiple top players simultaneously. Robinhood has also begun supporting derivatives trading, as perpetual contracts dominate crypto trading and are a superior operational mode compared to traditional options.

A technical challenge remains unresolved: cross-margin on Hyperliquid remains outsourced to third-party providers like Flood and Fullstack Trade. According to internal estimates, the complete solution from Flood is still about 6 months away. Lighter’s broader team could solve this issue sooner, creating a competitive edge.

Hyperliquid has the advantage of being the first mover. But if Lighter quickly integrates this feature, a significant redistribution of liquidity becomes inevitable. In derivatives trading, order book depth and execution latency remain the key factors in platform choice.

Conclusion: A Transitory Valuation

By comparing every fundamental metric—FDV, P/S, TVL, OI—Lighter systematically appears undervalued relative to comparables. The only exception remains the absence of a top-tier influencer like CZ and the support of artificial liquidity from Coinbase as experienced by Aster.

In the context of VC flows seeking an alternative to missed HYPE, private money quietly accumulating via OTC, and strategic partnerships with Robinhood unfolding over the next quarters, the current valuation represents a window of opportunity.

Lighter’s story draws an extraordinary parallel with Hyperliquid in its early stage. Those who understood this parallel, accumulating significant positions in recent weeks, could find themselves in an exceptionally advantageous position when the market corrects this mispricing.