Machi's Bullish Conviction Comes With a Price: Despite 55.56% Win Rate, Month-Long Long Streak Leads to $3.5M Drawdown

Machi Big Brother, the prominent trader Huang Licheng, has doubled down on his long-only strategy over the past month—and the numbers tell a cautionary tale. According to Hyperbot tracking data, while his profitability ratio reached 55.56% across 27 total trades, his net position remains deeply underwater at a loss exceeding $3.515 million.

The Trade Breakdown: Wins Don’t Equal Profits

The trader’s success metrics reveal an interesting paradox. Out of 27 long positions initiated throughout the month, 15 closed profitably while 12 resulted in losses. On the surface, a 55.56% win rate might seem respectable—but when the final tally is a seven-figure drawdown, it suggests that his losing trades carry significantly larger drawdowns than his profitable ones, or the positions hit by adverse price action sustained substantially deeper losses.

Notably, Huang Licheng has maintained zero short positions during this period, maintaining an exclusively bullish stance regardless of market conditions.

Current Holdings: Massive Leveraged Exposure

His current portfolio reflects an aggressive, multi-asset long bias:

Ethereum: A 25x leveraged position holding 5,250 ETH at an average entry price around $2,942, representing substantial bet-sizing on Ethereum’s upside.

Bitcoin: An even more aggressive 40x leveraged position containing 11 BTC with average entry at approximately $88,321, indicating conviction in near-term price appreciation.

HYPE: A 10x leveraged long of 38,888 HYPE tokens at roughly $24 per token, showing exposure to emerging assets alongside major cryptocurrencies.

The cumulative leverage across these positions, combined with the month’s performance, underscores both the appeal and peril of leveraged trading in volatile cryptocurrency markets—where a 55.56% win rate ultimately failed to overcome the magnitude of losses on unsuccessful trades.