The biggest signal hidden behind 2025 "darkness": The crypto market has entered a new era

2025 seems to be a failure for the crypto market — BTC down -5.4%, ETH down -12%, major altcoins lose 35-60%. But if you only look at these numbers, you will miss what is really happening beneath the surface.

Fundamental Changes in the Market Machinery

Data Reflects a Shift in Power

When BTC peaks at $126.08K then retreats to $91.77K, the truly notable thing is not the price drop, but who is buying during the decline.

In 2025, Bitcoin ETFs absorb a net $25 trillion, with total AUM reaching $114-120 billion. Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity control 89% of total BTC ETF assets. BlackRock IBIT alone holds 800,000 BTC ( surpassing MicroStrategy with 671,268 BTC), becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history after just 228 days.

Meanwhile, what are retail investors doing? Small trades under $1 decreased by 66.38%, large trades over $10 million increased by 59.26%. River estimates that in 2025, retail investors will sell a net 247,000 BTC (about $23 trillion).

This is not just a change in participation proportions, but a complete rewriting of the market’s rules.

The Historic Transfer of Supply

Numbers Show an Unprecedented Reallocation

From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term investors (LTH) have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC worth $121.17 billion. This is an unprecedented wave of supply liquidation.

But the miracle is: prices did not crash. Why? Organizations and corporate treasuries absorbed all this selling pressure. The 13F reports show 86% of institutional investors have already allocated or plan to allocate digital assets. The amount of BTC that has not moved in 2 years has decreased by 1.6 million (about $140 trillion) since early 2024, yet the market’s absorption capacity is stronger than ever.

Old model: retail investors excited → prices spike → crash → restart.

New model: institutions allocate steadily → volatility narrows → central prices rise → structural growth.

Prices remain sideways but capital flows continue — this is a sign of a new trend.

The Power of Global Institutions

When “Major Players” Begin Accumulating

Institutions hold 24% of total ETF AUM (Q3 2025), with major asset managers accounting for 57%, professional hedge funds 41%. In FBTC, institutional participation reaches 33.9%.

Abu Dhabi Investment Council, Mubadala, Harvard University endowment fund ($116 million IBIT) — the biggest names in global finance are “entering the game.”

Traditional banks are also involved: Wells Fargo $491 million, Morgan Stanley $724 million, JPMorgan $346 million. Bitcoin ETF products are no longer just financial tools but have become standard managed assets.

The correlation between BTC and S&P 500 increased from 0.29 in 2024 to 0.5 in 2025 — Bitcoin is gradually integrating into the global financial system.

An Unprecedented Policy Window

2025-2026: A Changing Political Landscape

The Trump administration in 2025 implemented:

• Crypto Executive Order (signed on 23/1)
• Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (~200,000 BTC)
• GENIUS Act stablecoin regulation framework
• New SEC Chair (Atkins takes office)

Upcoming: Market structure legislation (with a 77% chance of passing before 2027), stablecoin purchases of short-term government bonds (scale to increase tenfold over the next three years).

But there is a critical “time window”: November 2026 midterm elections. History shows that election years see intense policy activity in the first half, with significant volatility in the second half.

274 “crypto-supporting” candidates won in 2024. Surveys indicate 64% of crypto investors consider a candidate’s stance on crypto “very important.” Banking lobbying groups plan to spend over $100 million to counteract the influence of crypto donations.

Why the “Dark Year” Is a Stepping Stone for a New Cycle

The logic of transitions never happens smoothly

2013: retail-led, peak $1,100 2017: ICO frenzy, peak $20,000 2021: DeFi + NFT, peak $69,000 2025: institutional entry, currently $91.77K (Ethereum at $3.15K)

Each cycle involves more professional participants, larger capital, and more developed infrastructure. The “worst performance” in 2025 is actually a transitional phase from the old world (retail speculation) to the new (institutional allocation).

Price is the cost of transition, but the direction is clear.

Price Targets: Institutional Perspectives

• VanEck: $180,000
• Standard Chartered: $175,000-$250,000
• Tom Lee: $150,000
• Grayscale: new highs in the first half of 2026

Investment Logic for Practical Clients

Short-term (3-6 months): Fluctuating between $87K-$95K, institutions continue building positions

Medium-term (first half of 2026): Policy + institutional momentum together drive, target $120K-$150K

Long-term (second half of 2026): Major volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity

Things to Watch

Globally, 134 listed companies currently hold 1.686 million BTC and continue to buy (MicroStrategy leads the way). This is a strong signal that large corporations see this asset as having long-term value.

Risks still exist: Fed policies, USD strength, delays in the Market Structure Act, long-term holders may continue selling, and the midterm election results are uncertain.

But the flip side of risk is opportunity. When everyone is pessimistic, that’s often the best time to position.

Conclusion: This Is Not the Cycle Peak, But the Beginning

2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization of the crypto market. Outwardly, it appears to be the worst year for crypto, but in reality, it is the largest supply transfer, the strongest institutional allocation will, the clearest supportive policies, and the most comprehensive infrastructure development.

BTC -5.4%, but ETFs are absorbing a net $25 trillion. That is the biggest signal you should not ignore.

The job of true investors is not to predict short-term prices but to identify structural trends. When market structure changes fundamentally, old valuation logic becomes invalid, and a new valuation framework will be established.

Stay rational, stay patient, forget the four-year cycle — the era of institutionalized crypto markets has begun.