2026-01-12 02:30:43

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Thoughts on the Future of $FXS

FXS (Frax Share) has recently become a focus for many investors. Having fallen from all-time highs to around $1, can this project return to $10 by 2026? To answer this question, we need to look at several dimensions clearly.

Shift in Core Logic

Initially, Frax was positioned as a stablecoin protocol, but now the story has changed. Fraxtal, as an independent L2 chain, is building a complete DeFi ecosystem. If by the end of 2026, the TVL can reach the goal of 100 billion, the value support for FXS as a governance token will be stronger.

Revenue model is being activated. Once the protocol fee switch is fully turned on, 50% of the revenue will be used to buy back FXS and distribute to veFXS holders. This means evolving from a simple governance token to a yield asset with real cash flow backing.

Supply side is also changing. By 2026, the annual inflation rate of FXS is expected to drop to around 3%. The slowdown in supply growth combined with increasing ecosystem demand significantly raises the possibility of a "scissors" price formation.

Risks to Watch

Currently, the project is in the phase of FRAX brand unification and token migration. Short-term liquidity dispersion has led to less impressive price performance, which requires holders to be patient. Additionally, in the L2 and stablecoin sectors, competitors like Ethena and major exchanges are making efforts. If Frax cannot keep up with the execution pace, even the best plans will be hard to realize.

Entry Strategy

The current volatile range is not suitable for high leverage trading. To see $10 by 2026, it relies on time compounding rather than short-term luck. During the bottoming period, using idle funds for dollar-cost averaging is a more rational choice.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 12h ago

$1 Bottom? It sounds like faith, and it’s gambling if you say it harshly. Anyway, I just can’t do it. But the veFXS buyback logic definitely has some substance. If the TVL can really break 10 billion, it’s worth looking forward to. Frax’s biggest enemy now isn’t Ethena, but its own execution. It’s been dragging on too long, you know? Dollar-cost averaging sounds stable, but who can guarantee they’ll still be active in 2026... Forget it, I’d rather keep playing the new issues. In the highly competitive L2 track, why should FXS be able to multiply tenfold? Wake up, everyone.

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CoffeeOnChain

· 14h ago

Buy $1 worth of FXS at the bottom, betting on whether the 2026 buyback mechanism can actually be implemented Wait, is Ethena really competing so fiercely in the stablecoin space? Will Frax be wiped out just like that? Dollar-cost averaging sounds very rational, but I still want to ask if anyone has really waited for a 10x return Liquidity dispersion is indeed a headache, and there's no hope in sight in the short term The 100 billion TVL figure now feels a bit surreal The veFXS yield distribution system seems to be paving the way for long-term holders, but the question is whether the road is accessible But to be fair, Bitcoin also dropped from dozens of dollars to $1 back then, who knows?

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-12 05:41

1 USD to 10 USD? It depends on whether Fraxtal can truly build up the ecosystem, otherwise it's all just talk on paper. The bottoming phase is indeed suitable for dollar-cost averaging, but the key is whether the execution can keep up with players like Ethena. The revenue model activation sounds good, but I'm just worried it might be another PPT promise. Dollar-cost averaging is fine; anyway, idle funds are just sitting there, so let's just consider it a bet on 2026. Frax's story is changing, but whether it turns out well depends on whether the ecosystem scale can grow. Otherwise, governance tokens are just governance tokens.

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LeekCutter

· 01-12 03:00

FXS has dropped from $10 to $1 in this wave. To be honest, I'm a bit hesitant... But since it's fallen so much, maybe dollar-cost averaging and positioning could be worth a try? The question is whether they can really push TVL to $100 billion by 2026. Right now, it looks a bit uncertain.

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HorizonHunter

· 01-12 03:00

FXS has gone from $1 to $10. It sounds good, but Bitcoin still depends on execution. With liquidity so dispersed right now, it's hard to see any surprises in the short term.

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BoredApeResistance

· 01-12 02:53

Huh? Still dare to make a regular investment in FXS now? With liquidity so scattered, I don't have confidence. Wait, from 1 dollar to 10 dollars? How many times is that? Not good at math, but it feels like just making empty promises. The buyback mechanism is indeed interesting, but Ethena is already so strong. Can Frax really keep up with the pace? 2026 is still too far away. I'll wait and see the TVL data for the next quarter first. Let it bottom out if it needs to, anyway, idle funds have nowhere to go.

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AirdropJunkie