According to the latest CME Fed Funds Futures data, market expectations for a rate cut at the January Federal Reserve meeting are now almost certain—there is a 95.6% probability of holding rates steady, which means the likelihood of a rate cut at the beginning of the year is essentially zero.

Specifically, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 4.4%, which is a negative indicator. Interestingly, looking further ahead, the cumulative expectations until March show a 27.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 71.3%. There is also an almost negligible figure—only a 1.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.

What does this data mean for mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and Ethereum? In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance is expected to remain unchanged, which typically puts pressure on risk assets. However, based on the March data, the market has started to price in some rate cut expectations, indicating that the market is weighing the changing economic data. For crypto investors focused on macro policies, this is a key turning point to watch closely.