Non-farm data releases often cause the market to move in the opposite direction, which is a trap many traders have fallen into.

To put it simply, the market is not wrong. The real issue is that—before the data is announced—the market has already priced in it.

Imagine that before the data is released, institutions and large traders have already completed their position adjustments based on various expectation models. When the non-farm figures are finally announced, if the numbers just "meet expectations," where does the new buying come from? Most likely, it doesn't. Instead, early entrants start to sell off, causing the market to reverse. This is especially evident in trending markets—non-farm data is often not the start of a trend but a trigger for a phase top or bottom.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the high volatility during the non-farm release period itself. Algorithmic trading, institutional hedging, options position adjustments—these can generate huge swings within seconds. It may look like a break of a key level, but upon review, it’s just a "false breakout." That’s why chasing the market immediately after the data release often leads retail traders into traps.

So, how should one operate? The key is not to focus on the first candlestick after the release, but to observe subsequent market structure changes. Has the trend been broken? Are key support and resistance levels effectively breached? Is the trading volume continuously increasing? If none of these conditions are met, then the volatility caused by non-farm data is basically noise.

Another approach: instead of fighting during the non-farm period, treat it as an "opportunity for risk management." Reduce your position size, calm your emotions first, and wait until the market fully digests the data. Then, follow the larger trend to make your move. Although this approach may seem conservative, it often results in a higher success rate.