2026-01-11 12:20:15

The crypto market has been destined for turbulence these past two days. The recently released US employment data and tonight’s key economic indicators, combined with multiple factors, have directly pushed the market into a high-volatility phase. This is not alarmist talk but a direct observation after monitoring macroeconomic data all day.

Let’s first look at the initial trigger—conflicting signals in the employment data. The number of new jobs added was only 50,000, far below the market expectation of 66,000. On the surface, this seems like a warning of sluggish economic growth. But behind the data lies a twist: the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. November’s employment figures were subsequently revised downward. This contradictory combination of “weakness and strength” has left investors confused.

How to interpret this situation? Simply put, growth is slowing down but the labor market remains tight. For crypto assets, this is mostly bearish news. The slowdown in growth directly triggers recession expectations, causing funds to instinctively move into safe-haven assets. High-risk cryptocurrencies are among the first to come under pressure. However, the tight labor market also signals a "pause" for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Recently, the market was betting on a rate cut in January, but now that probability has dropped to only 11%. To put it plainly, this hope can essentially be abandoned. Looking back at the recent rebound in the crypto market, much of it was driven by "expectations of rate cuts." Now, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue maintaining high interest rates, and market liquidity has no short-term improvement prospects. Without additional capital inflows, the upward momentum of the crypto market will significantly weaken.

At 8 PM tonight, another major data release is imminent, which will further confirm the market’s expected direction. With multiple factors resonating, the upcoming market fluctuations will not be small. Traders must clarify these logical relationships beforehand, or they risk being driven by market sentiment into impulsive decisions.

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ruggedNotShrugged

· 23h ago

No more rate cuts, and a rebound would be pointless. This wave is indeed tough. --- Once again, playing tricks with employment data, investors are completely confused. --- Do high interest rates need to continue? Then I’ll just stay flat and wait, I can’t get in anyway. --- Every time they say "clarify the logic," but it still ends up being a trap. --- A 11% chance is still worth expecting—these people are really incredible. --- Without liquidity, crypto is just dead water, obvious to all. --- Macroeconomic data stacking up is a big trap; let’s see how it blows up at 8 PM tonight. --- "Contradictory signals" just mean no signals. Analyzing hard is pointless; luck might be better. --- The Federal Reserve sticking to high interest rates, so we’ll just stick to our wallets. --- Slowing growth and risk-avoidance mode, in plain terms, is a warning of a market crash. --- Tight labor markets can’t save the crypto world, how ironic. --- This wave of market volatility won’t be small? Then let’s let the bullets fly for a while.

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TestnetNomad

· 01-11 12:45

No more rate cuts, this rebound is really just a bluff The Federal Reserve is determined to suck blood, whether it's a dead end or a bottom-fishing opportunity in the short term Tonight's data will be the last straw, let's wait and see the show

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NFTRegretter

· 01-11 12:42

No more rate cuts, and the rebound logic has also collapsed. Things are getting interesting now. --- It's another "data contradiction" situation. Investors are really confused, and so am I. --- Wait until 8 PM tonight. I feel like there might be another dip. --- High interest rates are supporting it, but liquidity is dead. Who would dare to rush into crypto? --- That 11% probability of rate cut, I bet it will keep decreasing. --- Adding 50,000 new jobs? The economic growth is indeed a bit weak. --- Mixed employment data, one weak and one strong, making it look like a double act. The market can't figure it out. --- Without new funds entering the market, it's doomed. The upward momentum for crypto is about to fade. --- I just want to know if tonight's data can save this mess. --- The Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates is a nightmare for high-risk assets.

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PumpBeforeRug

· 01-11 12:32

No more rate cuts, liquidity is dead, this rebound is just an illusion The Federal Reserve is ruthless, crushing our last hope As soon as the data came out, I knew today would plunge. Luckily, I didn't chase the high

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AirdropSkeptic

· 01-11 12:31

The dream of rate cuts is shattered; this rebound is illusory. Wait, the unemployment rate actually dropped? This data is really twisted. Oh my, only 50,000 new jobs, is a recession really coming? Liquidity is gone, how can it rise later? If you still chase high in this wave, you really deserve it. 11% probability means no chance at all; don't count on rate cuts. Under high interest rates, hot money flows into bonds, who still plays with coins? So now it's stagflation + lack of liquidity? Double whammy? If tonight's data is even worse, it will truly be at the bottom. Contradictory data is the most disgusting, driving people crazy. Brothers borrowing money to trade coins must be suffering; high interest rates are a freebie.

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GasFeeCrying

· 01-11 12:27

No more rate cuts, liquidity is frozen, this rebound probably won't last 11% chance of rate cut in January? Just say goodbye, it's the rhythm of getting cut Data contradictions, then let's wait and see tonight's crash show Employment data dragging down, unemployment rate dropping again, market logic is completely messed up High volatility is coming again, better to cut losses on the coins in hand Federal Reserve hard landing, cryptocurrencies are hit first, this time they really can't hold up Safe haven mode activated, high-risk assets are crying No new capital inflow, what's the point of playing, all upward momentum is gone

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MetaverseLandlady

· 01-11 12:20

The rate hike is over, and this rebound is just an illusion. It was time to sell early. The Federal Reserve is really ruthless. High interest rates continue to lock everything down, so we're just waiting to be cut. Not only investors are confused by the weak and strong, I can't understand anything right now. An 11% probability is basically no probability at all. Retail investors are still dreaming. If liquidity doesn't improve, just sell directly. What are you waiting for?

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