the market quietly flipped its tone on iran.

odds of the regime falling before 2027 jumped to ~47% and this move didn’t come from hype.

persistent protests
economic pressure compounding
elite fractures getting louder
external tension staying elevated

this isn’t a prediction of when.
it’s the market admitting stability is no longer the base case.

when probabilities grind higher instead of spiking, that’s usually informed money talking.