The latest non-farm payroll data was released, and the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in January have been completely shattered. The unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% seems positive, but the truth behind it is a bit painful—only 50,000 new jobs were added, and the data from the previous months has been revised downward, clearly signaling a weakening job market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in January has fallen to single digits. The Fed's own dot plot also hints at something—there may only be one rate cut by 2026. However, Wall Street is still fighting; most institutions haven't given up on the expectation of two rate cuts this year, just pushing the timeline back—from early in the year to June and September.

This situation is quite contradictory. Economic data sometimes suggests a recession is imminent, and other times indicates resilience. More importantly, inflation hasn't been fully subdued, and the job market is noticeably softening. The Fed is caught in the middle and can only gradually ease policy—like squeezing toothpaste. But if unemployment rises again in the second half of the year, a 180-degree policy shift isn't impossible—then the "emergency rate cut" scenario might be triggered.

One variable worth watching is that the Fed Chair may change in May. The new leader's policy stance will directly determine the pace of subsequent liquidity releases. If they adopt a dovish approach, the market could see an early cycle of easing.

So, there are two key points to watch. First, whether the June FOMC meeting will truly initiate the first rate cut. Second, the policy direction after the new chair takes office. Both signals will significantly impact the subsequent performance of the crypto market.