2026-01-11 10:23:30

Bitcoin has recently been affected by several negative news that have not yet been fully priced in. The probability of the US taking military action against Iran before January 31 is around 46%, and a US court ruling on the 14th that Trump’s tariffs are illegal has a 73% chance of being upheld. There is also a 27% chance that the $130 billion in tariffs will be reversed. How these factors will develop remains to be seen, as the market has not yet fully digested them.

On the positive side, Trump announced his new Federal Reserve nominee, and the appointment of Haskett is generally seen as a bullish signal, while Wosh’s appearance aligns with market expectations.

From a technical perspective, there are two main viewpoints. One believes BTC is accumulating near $90,000, and when volume increases, it will break through $100,000 in one go and enter a new rally. The other sees a head and shoulders top pattern on the weekly chart, expecting that as negative news gradually unfolds, the price will fall below $80,000, and only after bottoming out can a true V-shaped rebound begin.

I personally lean towards the second view, as the entry point would offer a better cost advantage.

BTC2,52%

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TokenStorm

· 15h ago

The head and shoulders pattern I’ve looked at three times, and the data indeed points to the $80,000 support, but I still bet on that 27% probability of an explosive moment. Anyway, I’ve already calculated the probability of losing money thoroughly.

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FlippedSignal

· 01-11 10:53

The head and shoulders top theory sounds a bit far-fetched, but a drop to $80,000 definitely presents a buying opportunity... The key is whether you have the mental readiness to wait until that moment.

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DogeBachelor

· 01-11 10:45

I've seen this head and shoulders top pattern too many times. Every time, they say it will break 80,000 but then reverse and rally. I wouldn't trust it this time either, haha.

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LightningAllInHero

· 01-11 10:44

I'm tired of the head and shoulders pattern. Every time, they say it will break 80,000, but what happens? After digesting the bearish news, it still needs to rise. Stop with these empty talks.

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FromMinerToFarmer

· 01-11 10:38

Same old story, waiting for the bearish news to ferment? I think, rather than guessing the probability of military actions, it's better to pay attention to the Fed's moves... There are indeed some signs of Hasset's rise, but whether it's 90,000 or 80,000 breaking support, honestly, no one can say for sure right now.

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 01-11 10:34

Uh, wait a minute. With so many bearish signals piling up, you're telling me the energy storage will break through 100,000? Dream on.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-11 10:30

Talking about bullish and bearish signals again, brother. I'm tired of this kind of rhetoric. The key is to see how the technicals develop. I'll be ready to buy the dip once it drops below 80,000. Entering at this level is purely giving the big players money.

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