The Market Paradox Behind Non-Farm Payroll Data: Easing Expectations Fizzle Out, What’s Next for Bitcoin

The US December employment data just released has already caused contradictions—only 50,000 new jobs, the worst annual performance since 2020, far below expectations. But ironically, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.4%. It’s like a weather forecast predicting rain, but people on the street are sunbathing, leaving the market confused.

How should we interpret this data? The economy is indeed hitting the brakes, with demand for labor clearly weakening, but the tight labor market has not fully eased yet. Even more frustrating is that this destroys the market’s hope for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January—expectations have sharply dropped from a previous level to 5%, and the rate cut countdown has been halted.

BTC responded very "calmly," hovering around $90,707, with no clear direction for now. The reason is simple: this set of data is a double-edged sword for the crypto world. Weak employment data could support expectations of rate cuts, benefiting long-term risk assets; but the rebound in the unemployment rate makes the Fed more cautious in its moves. Recent observations from JPMorgan are also quite critical—ETF outflows are slowing, and the short-term selling pressure may be nearing its end, but a new direction still requires clearer signals from macro fundamentals.

On the technical side, the $90,000 level is becoming increasingly important. It’s both a psychological barrier and a real support level; losing it could lead to a retest of the $88,000 zone. The current situation is: rather than guessing short-term market moves blindly, it’s better to sit tight and wait for the market to digest these conflicting data, and act only after new consensus emerges.