Bitcoin Eyes $99k Resistance: Will Whale Accumulation Break Through in 2026?

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Bitcoin Price Eyes $99k Next: Will Whales Block Bullish Outlook? Original Link:

BTC Whales Losses Grip

According to on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized price for new whales short-term holders and old whales long-term holders (excluding miners and CEXs) has dropped to $99k. As such, analysts noted that Bitcoin price is approaching a crucial resistance level, given the pressure from new whales short-term holders selling at $99k to break even.

CryptoQuant’s data also shows that large Bitcoin investors have not been buying the dip after capitulating in 2025. Specifically, Bitcoin addresses for whales holding between 1K and 10K BTC are down 220K BTC year-over-year, marking the fastest decline since early 2023.

As such, $99k will be a crucial resistance for Bitcoin to break in order to validate a parabolic rally in 2026.

Fear of Possible U.S. Government Shutdown

Analysts also noted that Bitcoin price is approaching a hawkish event, following announcements of a potential government shutdown starting on January 30, 2026. During the last U.S. government shutdown, BTC price dropped nearly 20%. As such, a potential government shutdown, amid the low BTC demand from whales, will further fuel midterm bearish sentiment.

Bigger Picture: The BTC/XAU Short-Squeeze

Despite the above scenario likely to play out in the near term, the global crypto community is holding onto the idea that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over. Wall Street analysts have advocated for a Bitcoin supercycle catalyzed by cumulative strong fundamentals and anticipated capital rotation from the precious metals industry.

For more than 8 months, Gold and Silver have registered consecutive new monthly all-time highs (ATHs). However, Bitcoin price has been trapped in choppy consolidation, with a decline exceeding 10% in 2025.

From a technical analysis standpoint, capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin is about to accelerate in tandem with rising global money supply. Notably, the BTC/XAU pair on the daily timeframe has formed a potential reversal pattern characterized by an inverse head and shoulders (H&S) shape coupled with rising divergence of an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI).

As such, Bitcoin price is well positioned to rally through $99k in the near future, catalyzed by the supportive macroeconomic backdrop.