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Potential bearish news
Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will rule on whether Trump-era tariffs are illegal.
If the Court decides that the IEEPA-based tariffs are unlawful, the U.S. government could be forced to refund over $133.5B in duties to importers.
According to Polymarket, there’s currently a ~75% probability that the tariffs are ruled illegal.
It’s impossible to know the market’s exact reaction:
• Markets could initially react positively, as tariffs are generally seen as negative for growth
• Or they could focus on the massive refund obligation for the U.S. government and turn risk-off (more likely)
Expect BIG volatility for the end of the week