$BTC facing a real test as the next FOMC meeting gets closer, and honestly, the odds of a rate cut look pretty much dead in the water.

Lately, $BTC just been stuck—trading sideways while macro pressures keep building and momentum fizzles out. Sure, BTC tried to climb back up to $90,000, but sellers jumped in fast and shut that down. Meanwhile, markets are practically convinced the Fed won’t cut rates this time. Polymarket even puts the chance of rates staying the same at about 90%. That’s a lot of agreement.

It matters because Bitcoin’s recent moves higher were all about hoping the Fed would ease up—not because there’s more money sloshing around. With rates staying high, real yields keep things tight, and people tend to pull back from risk.

So, the FOMC isn’t looking like a launchpad. It’s more like a cap on the market. With almost nobody expecting a surprise rate cut, there’s just not much room for Bitcoin to suddenly rally. Conditions like this usually mean more sideways grinding or a slow pullback, not a big breakout.

Some analysts will tell you institutions are keeping things stable. And it’s true—BTC hasn’t managed to break back above $94,000 or $95,000, but it hasn’t totally caved below $92,000 either. Moves by index giants like MSCI to keep crypto companies in the mix help boost credibility a bit. Still, that doesn’t mean new buyers are flooding in. It just lowers the odds of a crash, not the actual pressure from the bigger economic picture.

Right now, Bitcoin’s stuck in a range. There’s a wall of sellers near $94,000, buyers camped closer to $84,000, and $90,000 sits right in the middle—acting like a tug of war rope. Every time Bitcoin hits that upper supply zone, sellers step in, and it looks more like people cashing out than the start of a new rally.

If Bitcoin can’t hold $90,000 this time, it probably dips down to the $86,582 area—where buyers stepped in before. If BTC holds up there, maybe we see another swing higher. But if that level breaks, it opens the door to $84,000 and more downside risk.

Heading into the FOMC, Bitcoin doesn’t look ready to break out. Rate expectations are locked in, liquidity’s tight, and there’s not much energy behind the moves. So, we’re probably in for more choppy trading. The real action should come after the Fed’s decision—whatever happens next, it’ll set the stage for Bitcoin’s next move.